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FLUS44 KOUN 211724
HWOOUN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221230-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across portions
of north central, central, and southern Oklahoma, and western
north Texas. A Slight and Marginal risk cover much of the rest of
the area.

Location...
The Enhanced risk is near and southeast of a line from Cherokee to
Seiling to Clinton and Altus Oklahoma, to Crowell and Seymour 
Texas. This includes places like Ponca City, Enid, Lawton, 
Oklahoma City Metro, Ada, and Ardmore Oklahoma, and Wichita Falls 
Texas. The Slight and Marginal risks are west of the Enhanced risk
and southeast of a line from Buffalo to Arnett Oklahoma.

Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts to around 80 mph and large hail up to the size
of tennis balls are the primary concerns. There is a low potential
for tornadoes across portions of central and southern Oklahoma,
and western north Texas.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from 3 pm to 2 am.
The most likely time for a tornado, if a tornado occurs, will be 
from 3 pm to 9 pm.

Discussion...
Thunderstorms will develop along the strong cold front which will
push into northwestern Oklahoma this Afternoon. Initial storms
will occur across northern and western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms
will continue to develop as the cold front moves across the area
this evening and overnight. Storms will form into one or two lines
fairly quickly. Large hail will be a concern with the initial
development, before damaging winds become the greatest concern as
storms become more linear. Isolated wind gusts up to 80 mph are
possible.

Other more discrete storms could develop in parts of southwest 
Oklahoma and western north Texas later this afternoon near a 
surface low, the front, and dryline. Large hail up to the size of
tennis balls and wind gusts to 70 mph will be the main concerns
with these storms. However, there will also be a low potential for
tornado development within the strongest storms. Eventually, 
these storms are expected to merge into line segments as well, 
with the damaging wind potential becoming a greater concern. The 
tornado potential is expected to decrease later this evening.

The potential for severe storms will decrease overnight but
thunderstorms will remain possible through early Sunday.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations late this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms may linger in parts of southeast Oklahoma
Sunday morning before exiting the area.

.Cold/Frost...
Patchy frost and near freezing temperatures may be possible across
portions of Oklahoma late next week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$

Kurtz

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  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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