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AXUS74 KHGX 100358 CCC
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TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-252300-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1050 PM CDT SAT JUN 09 2018

...Large Expansion of Moderate to Severe Drought Conditions in SE 
TX...

SYNOPSIS...

Within the NWS Houston/Galveston forecast area, the U.S. Drought 
Monitor has expanded Severe Drought conditions (D2) through most of 
Jackson County, and into portions of Wharton and Colorado counties. 
Severe Drought conditions are also now present along the coast in 
Matagorda and Brazoria counties. Additionally, abnormally dry to 
moderate drought conditions have also been expanded across a large 
area of southeast Texas. As of this week's update, a portion of 
every county within the NWS Houston/Galveston Forecast area now is 
experiencing some form of drought condition, ranging from Abnormally 
Dry (D0) to Severe Drought (D2). Approximately 0.75 inches (in 
isolated locations) or less rainfall has fallen over the last seven 
days across portions of SE TX, resulting in the drastic expansion of 
drought conditions, since last week.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

Impacts will be updated as additional information becomes 
available. Reports from the Lavaca-Navidad River Authority include 
agriculture impacts including the possible reduction of corn and 
soybean yield, below normal lake levels reported at Lake Texana, and 
the enactment of Stage 2 Level Drought Contingency Plan triggered by 
the lake capacity levels from Lake Texana. Additionally, the 0-10 cm 
below ground relative soil moisture percentages are as follows: 
Jackson County 9-15%, while Colorado, Wharton, and Matagorda 
counties are experiencing values between 10-25%.

FIRE IMPACTS... Counties which have enacted burn bans as of June 7th 
include Jackson, Wharton, and Matagorda counties.

THE KEETCH-BRYAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)... KDBI is an index used to 
determine forest fire potential, which is based on a daily water 
balance considering precipitation and soil moisture. The KBDI can 
range from 0 to 800, where a value of 0 represents no moisture 
depletion, and 800 would be representative of absolutely dry 
conditions. A KBDI between 600 and 800 is often associated with 
severe drought and increased wildfire potential. The following table 
lists the KDBI for counties across the region as of June 7th that 
are experiencing drought conditions.

 KBDI        KBDI        KBDI 
500-600     400-500     300-400

Colorado    Harris      Grimes 
Wharton     Fort Bend   Brazos 
Jackson     Austin      Madison 
Brazoria    Waller 
Galveston   Washington 
Chambers    Burleson 
Liberty     Montgomery 
Trinity     Walker
            Polk 
            Houston

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

The first week of June brought above normal temperatures and below 
normal rainfall. Average temperatures have ranged from 2-7 degrees 
above normal.Rainfall totals so far after this first week of June at 
most climate sites are 1-2 inches already below normal.

Below is a list of the counties with their respective classification 
as designated by the U.S. Drought Monitor as of June 7th. Some 
counties had more than one classification.

D-0...Polk, Trinity, Houston, Liberty, San Jacinto, Chambers, 
Harris, Galveston, Brazoria, Fort Bend, Wharton, Colorado, Austin, 
Waller, Washington, Walker, Burleson, Brazos, Montgomery, Grimes and 
Madison

D-1...Colorado, Wharton, Matagorda, Brazoria, Fort Bend, Jackson 
Brazos, and Madison

D-2...Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria, Wharton, and Colorado

A brief description of each of the U.S. Drought Monitor 
classifications currently ongoing in southeast Texas can be found 
below:

D2...Severe Drought - Crop or pasture losses likely. Some water 
shortages common and some water restrictions imposed.

D1...Moderate Drought - Some damage to crops and pastures. 
Reservoirs or wells low. Voluntary water restrictions imposed.

D0...Abnormally Dry - Short term dryness. Plant growth slows. Minor 
water deficits.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

The local forecast over the next week calls for above normal daily 
temperatures, and little to no rainfall.

No changes in the monthly June Outlook, nor the three-month outlook 
produced by the Climate Prediction Center. The outlook from the 
Climate Prediction Center for the month of June across southeast 
Texas is for above normal temperatures (probability of 50-70% chance 
above normal), and near normal to below normal rainfall (probFRIability 
of 33% below normal). The three-month outlook from the Climate 
Prediction Center shows southeast Texas with a 40-60% chance above 
normal temperatures and near normal rainfall during the three-month 
period of June through August.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

Southeast Texas Streamflows as of June 7th... Some below to much 
below normal streamflow values reported in Jackson, Austin, 
Colorado, Wharton and along the coastal counties. With little in the 
way of rainfall anticipated over the next week, streamflows and lake 
levels are not likely much in the way of improvements.

Lake Name                 Date       Level Percent Full (%)

Houston County Lake       6/07               98.0 
Lake Conroe               6/07               99.0 
Lake Houston              6/07              100.0 
Livingston Reservoir      6/07              100.0 
Somerville Lake           6/07               98.1 
Lake Texana               6/07               74.1

NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUANCE...

The next Drought Information Statement will be issued on or near 
June 14th, 2018. If drought conditions worsen, an update may be 
provided at an earlier date. 

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

1. For more information regarding agriculture impacts, please 
reference the southeast and coastal bend under the Texas Crop and 
Weather Report at:
- https://today.agrilife.org/2018/05/30/texas-crop-and-weather-report
-may-30-2018/

2. For the latest KBDI:
- http://twc.tamu.edu/kbdi

3. For further clarification of the U.S. Drought Monitor, please 
reference the following:
- http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

4. For a list of Texas Public Water Systems limiting water use to 
avoid shortages, please reference the following:
- https://www.tceq.texas.gov/drinkingwater/trot/droughtw.html

5. For lake and reservoir levels: 
- https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

6. For resources specific to local Drought Information, please 
reference the following website from the National Weather Service 
Houston/Galveston Office:
- https://www.weather.gov/hgx/drought

7. Burn ban information can be found here:
- http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG

8. Local county pages experiencing burn bans or severe drought can 
be found at the following web pages:
- http://www.co.jackson.tx.us/
- http://www.co.matagorda.tx.us/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership between 
the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-
Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the 
National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, including the 
National Weather Service and the National Climate Data Center 
(NCDC). Other agencies include the USGS, USDA, and State/Regional 
Center Climatologists.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any question or comments, Please contact:

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Weather Forecast 
Office 1353 FM 646 Suite 202 Dickinson, TX  77539

Phone...281-337-5074 E-mail...sr-hgx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

Hathaway

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