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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
0130 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2018

...Expansion and Persistence of Severe Drought Conditions in SE TX...

SYNOPSIS...

Within the NWS Houston/Galveston forecast area, the U.S. Drought 
Monitor has expanded the Severe Drought conditions (D2) through all 
of Jackson County and into portions of Matagorda County. Severe 
drought conditions persist in Colorado, Wharton, and Brazoria 
counties. Additionally, abnormally dry to moderate drought 
conditions have also been expanded across a large area of southeast 
Texas. A portion of every county within the NWS Houston/Galveston 
Forecast area is currently experiencing some form of drought 
condition, ranging from Abnormally Dry (D0) to Severe Drought (D2). 
Only 0.10 to 2.0 inches (in isolated locations) of rainfall has 
fallen over the last seven days across portions of SE TX, resulting 
in the expansion and persistence of drought conditions since last 
week.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

Impacts will be updated as additional information becomes available. 
Agriculture impacts reported by the Lavaca-Navidad River Authority 
include the possible reduction of corn and soybean yield, below 
normal lake levels at Lake Texana, and the enactment of Stage 2 
Level Drought Contingency Plan triggered by the Lake Texana capacity 
levels. Additionally, the 0-10 cm below ground relative soil 
moisture percentages are as follows: Jackson County 5-20%, while 
Colorado, Wharton, and Matagorda counties are experiencing values 
between 5-40%.

FIRE IMPACTS... Counties that have enacted burn bans as of June 15th 
include Jackson, Colorado, Wharton, Matagorda, and Brazoria counties.

THE KEETCH-BRYAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)... KDBI is an index used to 
determine forest fire potential, which is based on a daily water 
balance considering precipitation and soil moisture. The KBDI can 
range from 0 to 800, where a value of 0 represents no moisture 
depletion, and 800 would be representative of absolutely dry 
conditions. A KBDI between 600 and 800 is often associated with 
severe drought and increased wildfire potential. The following table 
lists the KDBI for counties across the region as of June 14th that 
are experiencing drought conditions.

 KBDI        KBDI        
500-600     400-500     
Jackson     Grimes
Matagorda   Waller
Wharton     Brazos
Colorado    Burleson
Washington  Madison
Austin      Walker
Fort Bend
Brazoria
Galveston
Harris
Chambers
Liberty
Montgomery 
San Jacinto 
Polk 
Trinity 
Houston

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

So far, June has brought above normal temperatures and below normal 
rainfall. Average temperatures have ranged from 3-6 degrees above 
normal. Rainfall totals over the past two weeks have remained about 
1 to 3 inches below normal with a few spots along the coast seeing 3 
to 4 inches below normal. 

Below is a list of the counties with their highest classification as 
designated by the U.S. Drought Monitor as of June 14th. Some 
counties had more than one classification.

D-0...Polk, Trinity, Austin, Waller, Washington, Walker, Burleson, 
Montgomery, and Grimes

D-1...Fort Bend, Brazos, Madison, Liberty, Chambers, Galveston, 
Harris, Houston, and San Jacinto

D-2...Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria, Wharton, and Colorado

A brief description of each of the U.S. Drought Monitor 
classifications currently ongoing in southeast Texas can be found 
below:

D2...Severe Drought - Crop or pasture losses likely. Some water 
shortages common and some water restrictions imposed.

D1...Moderate Drought - Some damage to crops and pastures. 
Reservoirs or wells low. Voluntary water restrictions imposed.

D0...Abnormally Dry - Short term dryness. Plant growth slows. Minor 
water deficits.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

The local forecast over the next week calls for above normal 
temperatures and rainfall. Rainfall amounts ranging from 2 to 5 
inches, with the heaviest amounts along the coast, are forecast over 
the next 7 days. Drought conditions are expected to improve where 
the heaviest rain falls.  

Despite the short term forecast, no changes have been made to the 
monthly June Outlook, nor the three-month outlook produced by the 
Climate Prediction Center. The outlook from the Climate Prediction 
Center for the month of June across southeast Texas is for above 
normal temperatures (probability of 50-70% chance above normal), and 
near normal to below normal rainfall (probability of 33% below 
normal). The three-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center 
shows southeast Texas with a 40-60% chance above normal temperatures 
and near normal rainfall during the three-month period of June 
through August.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

Southeast Texas Streamflows as of June 15th... Some below to much 
below normal streamflow values along the Lavaca, Navidad, Colorado, 
San Bernard, Brazos, and Trinity Rivers, as well as some 
tributaries. However, with heavy rainfall expected over the next 5 
days, streamflows and lake levels are likely to improve.

Lake Name                 Date       Level Percent Full (%)
Houston County Lake       6/15              96.7 
Lake Livingston           6/15             100.0
Lake Conroe               6/15              98.1
Lake Houston              6/15              94.0
Lake Somerville           6/15              96.4
Lake Texana               6/15              72.4 


NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUANCE...

The next Drought Information Statement will be issued on or near 
June 21st, 2018. If drought conditions worsen, an update may be 
provided at an earlier date. 

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

1. For more information regarding agriculture impacts, please 
reference the southeast and coastal bend under the Texas Crop and 
Weather Report at:
- https://today.agrilife.org/2018/05/30/texas-crop-and-weather-report
-may-30-2018/

2. For the latest KBDI:
- http://twc.tamu.edu/kbdi

3. For further clarification of the U.S. Drought Monitor, please 
reference the following:
- http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

4. For a list of Texas Public Water Systems limiting water use to 
avoid shortages, please reference the following:
- https://www.tceq.texas.gov/drinkingwater/trot/droughtw.html

5. For lake and reservoir levels: 
- https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

6. For resources specific to local Drought Information, please 
reference the following website from the National Weather Service 
Houston/Galveston Office:
- https://www.weather.gov/hgx/drought

7. Burn ban information can be found here:
- http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG

8. Local county pages experiencing burn bans or severe drought can 
be found at the following web pages:
- http://www.co.jackson.tx.us/
- http://www.co.matagorda.tx.us/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership between 
the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-
Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the 
National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, including the 
National Weather Service and the National Climate Data Center 
(NCDC). Other agencies include the USGS, USDA, and State/Regional 
Center Climatologists.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any question or comments, Please contact:

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Weather Forecast 
Office 1353 FM 646 Suite 202 Dickinson, TX  77539

Phone...281-337-5074 E-mail...sr-hgx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

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