000 AXUS74 KHGX 151933 DGTHGX TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-252300- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 0130 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2018 ...Expansion and Persistence of Severe Drought Conditions in SE TX... SYNOPSIS... Within the NWS Houston/Galveston forecast area, the U.S. Drought Monitor has expanded the Severe Drought conditions (D2) through all of Jackson County and into portions of Matagorda County. Severe drought conditions persist in Colorado, Wharton, and Brazoria counties. Additionally, abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions have also been expanded across a large area of southeast Texas. A portion of every county within the NWS Houston/Galveston Forecast area is currently experiencing some form of drought condition, ranging from Abnormally Dry (D0) to Severe Drought (D2). Only 0.10 to 2.0 inches (in isolated locations) of rainfall has fallen over the last seven days across portions of SE TX, resulting in the expansion and persistence of drought conditions since last week. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... Impacts will be updated as additional information becomes available. Agriculture impacts reported by the Lavaca-Navidad River Authority include the possible reduction of corn and soybean yield, below normal lake levels at Lake Texana, and the enactment of Stage 2 Level Drought Contingency Plan triggered by the Lake Texana capacity levels. Additionally, the 0-10 cm below ground relative soil moisture percentages are as follows: Jackson County 5-20%, while Colorado, Wharton, and Matagorda counties are experiencing values between 5-40%. FIRE IMPACTS... Counties that have enacted burn bans as of June 15th include Jackson, Colorado, Wharton, Matagorda, and Brazoria counties. THE KEETCH-BRYAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)... KDBI is an index used to determine forest fire potential, which is based on a daily water balance considering precipitation and soil moisture. The KBDI can range from 0 to 800, where a value of 0 represents no moisture depletion, and 800 would be representative of absolutely dry conditions. A KBDI between 600 and 800 is often associated with severe drought and increased wildfire potential. The following table lists the KDBI for counties across the region as of June 14th that are experiencing drought conditions. KBDI KBDI 500-600 400-500 Jackson Grimes Matagorda Waller Wharton Brazos Colorado Burleson Washington Madison Austin Walker Fort Bend Brazoria Galveston Harris Chambers Liberty Montgomery San Jacinto Polk Trinity Houston CLIMATE SUMMARY... So far, June has brought above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. Average temperatures have ranged from 3-6 degrees above normal. Rainfall totals over the past two weeks have remained about 1 to 3 inches below normal with a few spots along the coast seeing 3 to 4 inches below normal. Below is a list of the counties with their highest classification as designated by the U.S. Drought Monitor as of June 14th. Some counties had more than one classification. D-0...Polk, Trinity, Austin, Waller, Washington, Walker, Burleson, Montgomery, and Grimes D-1...Fort Bend, Brazos, Madison, Liberty, Chambers, Galveston, Harris, Houston, and San Jacinto D-2...Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria, Wharton, and Colorado A brief description of each of the U.S. Drought Monitor classifications currently ongoing in southeast Texas can be found below: D2...Severe Drought - Crop or pasture losses likely. Some water shortages common and some water restrictions imposed. D1...Moderate Drought - Some damage to crops and pastures. Reservoirs or wells low. Voluntary water restrictions imposed. D0...Abnormally Dry - Short term dryness. Plant growth slows. Minor water deficits. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... The local forecast over the next week calls for above normal temperatures and rainfall. Rainfall amounts ranging from 2 to 5 inches, with the heaviest amounts along the coast, are forecast over the next 7 days. Drought conditions are expected to improve where the heaviest rain falls. Despite the short term forecast, no changes have been made to the monthly June Outlook, nor the three-month outlook produced by the Climate Prediction Center. The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the month of June across southeast Texas is for above normal temperatures (probability of 50-70% chance above normal), and near normal to below normal rainfall (probability of 33% below normal). The three-month outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows southeast Texas with a 40-60% chance above normal temperatures and near normal rainfall during the three-month period of June through August. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY... Southeast Texas Streamflows as of June 15th... Some below to much below normal streamflow values along the Lavaca, Navidad, Colorado, San Bernard, Brazos, and Trinity Rivers, as well as some tributaries. However, with heavy rainfall expected over the next 5 days, streamflows and lake levels are likely to improve. Lake Name Date Level Percent Full (%) Houston County Lake 6/15 96.7 Lake Livingston 6/15 100.0 Lake Conroe 6/15 98.1 Lake Houston 6/15 94.0 Lake Somerville 6/15 96.4 Lake Texana 6/15 72.4 NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUANCE... The next Drought Information Statement will be issued on or near June 21st, 2018. If drought conditions worsen, an update may be provided at an earlier date. && RELATED WEBSITES... 1. For more information regarding agriculture impacts, please reference the southeast and coastal bend under the Texas Crop and Weather Report at: - https://today.agrilife.org/2018/05/30/texas-crop-and-weather-report -may-30-2018/ 2. For the latest KBDI: - http://twc.tamu.edu/kbdi 3. For further clarification of the U.S. Drought Monitor, please reference the following: - http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ 4. For a list of Texas Public Water Systems limiting water use to avoid shortages, please reference the following: - https://www.tceq.texas.gov/drinkingwater/trot/droughtw.html 5. For lake and reservoir levels: - https://waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide 6. For resources specific to local Drought Information, please reference the following website from the National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Office: - https://www.weather.gov/hgx/drought 7. Burn ban information can be found here: - http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG 8. Local county pages experiencing burn bans or severe drought can be found at the following web pages: - http://www.co.jackson.tx.us/ - http://www.co.matagorda.tx.us/ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska- Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, including the National Weather Service and the National Climate Data Center (NCDC). Other agencies include the USGS, USDA, and State/Regional Center Climatologists. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... If you have any question or comments, Please contact: National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Weather Forecast Office 1353 FM 646 Suite 202 Dickinson, TX 77539 Phone...281-337-5074 E-mail...sr-hgx.webmaster@noaa.gov $$ 38
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