000
FXUS66 KSGX 050030
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
430 PM PST FRI JAN 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TAIL END OF A PACIFIC
STORM WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT THE
BULK OF THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL FALL AFTER MIDNIGHT 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS FORECAST. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY 
WITH MOST AREAS RETURNING DRY BY THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL 
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR 
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

ANOTHER SUNNY AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHED SOCAL ON SATURDAY MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME TO THE SOUTH BASICALLY MISSES US AS IT GETS ADVECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL BAJA AND INTO ARIZONA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN A BIT ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS LATEST FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE
AND IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5000 FEET AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. 

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
TRANSITORY RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST PAC AND CA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. 

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS SOCAL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH COULD BE 
WEAKENING AND ONCE AGAIN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF 
THE POTENCY OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE 
ADVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOCAL. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE 
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIPITATION 
WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH SHOULD TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. 

ANOTHER TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY ACROSS SOCAL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE EC NOW INDICATING A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND A COMPACT CLOSED LOW PASSING DIRECTLY
OVER SOCAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY BE WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY
BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. 

&&

.AVIATION... 
042125Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE, BUT 
INCREASING HIGH AND LOW CLOUDS BY LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN 
COASTAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z, WITH BASES 500-1500 FEET MSL 
AND VIS AS LOW AS 3-5SM. LOW CLOUD SCT-BKN WITH TOPS TO NEAR 2500 
FEET MSL BY SUNRISE. 

&&

.MARINE... 
NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A STORM WILL 
BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KTS SATURDAY 
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS OF 10-11 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR THE OUTER 
COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.SKYWARN... 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
 ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.



&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM PST MONDAY 
     FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY 
     MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PST MONDAY FOR 
     ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL

  US Dept of Commerce
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  National Weather Service
  1325 East West Highway
  Silver Spring, MD 20910
  Page Author: NWSChat Administration Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy  
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)  
About Us  
Career Opportunities