000
FGUS72 KFFC 071605
ESFFFC
GAC009-011-013-015-021-023-035-045-047-053-055-057-059-063-067-
077-079-081-083-085-089-091-093-097-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-
125-129-133-135-139-141-143-145-149-151-153-157-159-163-167-169-
171-175-187-193-195-197-199-207-209-211-213-215-217-219-221-223-
225-227-231-233-235-237-247-249-255-259-261-263-265-269-271-279-
281-283-285-289-291-293-295-297-301-303-307-309-311-313-315-317-
319-081600-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1105 AM EST THU MAR 7 2019

...SPRING FLOOD RISK IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...

FOR THE SPRING OF 2019, THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IS 
CALLING FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR NORTH AND 
CENTRAL GEORGIA. GIVEN THAT SPRING IS A CHARACTERISTICALLY ACTIVE 
PERIOD FOR RIVER FLOODING, THIS OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT NORTH AND 
CENTRAL GEORGIA CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE NUMBER AND MAGNITUDE OF 
RIVER FLOODS TO BE HIGHER THAN TYPICAL. 

CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE.
UPPER AND LOWER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLY MOIST TO
EXCESSIVELY WET OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL. AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOWS FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING AT TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE TENNESSEE, COOSA, UPPER CHATTAHOOCHEE AND UPPER
FLINT RIVER BASINS AVERAGING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TO HIGH STREAM
FLOW.

CLIMATE REGIME.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE FALL AND
WINTER MONTHS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING. THROUGH
THE EARLY WINTER, THIS PATTERN CONTRIBUTED TO STORM TRACKS THAT
BROUGHT SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
EVERY ONE TO THREE DAYS, LASTING ONE TO TWO DAYS AT A TIME. A
MODIFICATION IN THE PATTERN IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO HAS SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE,
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACCOMPANYING WEATHER SYSTEMS AT
LEAST ONCE PER WEEK. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, WITH THE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK SHOWING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER GEORGIA THROUGH THE SPRING MONTHS.

RAINFALL.
DURING THE PAST 90 DAYS, ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED OVER
NORTH GEORGIA, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR. IN
THIS AREA, RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 20 TO 35 INCHES, WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF UP TO 40 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA. THESE VALUES ARE 125 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
SOUTH OF THIS LINE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE LAST 90 DAYS HAVE
RANGED FROM 8 TO 20 INCHES, OR 75 TO 110 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHIFT IN THE RAINFALL AXIS IS NOTICEABLE IN THE
30-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH THE AREAS NORTH OF I-85 OBSERVING 5
TO 15 INCHES, OR 125 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL, WHILE THE AREAS
SOUTH OBSERVED 1 TO 4 INCHES, OR 25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

RECENT FLOODING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RIVER FLOODING HAS PERSISTED SINCE NOVEMBER,
WITH A PEAK IN FLOODING EVENTS IN LATE DECEMBER DURING A 
PARTICULARLY WET AND ACTIVE FEW WEEKS. FLOODING CONTINUED THROUGH
FEBRUARY INTO EARLY MARCH, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA IN
THE COOSA, TENNESSEE, AND UPPER CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER BASINS. 
ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER RISES IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS 
WERE WITHIN THE MINOR FLOODING CATEGORY, A FEW SITES IN THE COOSA 
RIVER BASIN MAINTAINED MODERATE FLOODING LEVELS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. 
WITH WET CONDITIONS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL STREAM FLOWS, GEORGIA 
IS PRIMED FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING EVENTS AS HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS 
THROUGH THE SPRING MONTHS. 

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS.
OVERALL POOL LEVELS OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA ARE ABOVE TARGET LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND IN 
MANY CASES ARE ALREADY ABOVE THE SUMMER FULL POOL ELEVATIONS. 
THESE RESERVOIRS HAVE MANAGED THE INCREASED RUNOFF AND MITIGATED 
DOWNSTREAM FLOODING, EVEN AT THEIR CURRENTLY HIGH LEVELS. OF NOTE,
IN LATE FEBRUARY, LAKE LANIER ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST ELEVATION IN 
OVER FOUR DECADES, AND NEARLY TIED THAT LEVEL AGAIN IN EARLY 
MARCH. 

DROUGHT AREAS.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT PRESENT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE SPRING MONTHS. 


HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOKS...

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK.
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE SPRING, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN.
THE CURRENT OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY IS FOR ABOVE NORMAL 
CHANCES OF RAINFALL OVER ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. EL NINO
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE SUMMER MONTHS. 

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK.
CONSIDERING THE SEASON PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK AND THE PRE-EXISTING
WET SOIL CONDITIONS AND HIGH STREAM FLOWS, THE OUTLOOK IS FOR AN
ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS SPRING FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. 

$$

BELANGER

  US Dept of Commerce
  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  National Weather Service
  1325 East West Highway
  Silver Spring, MD 20910
  Page Author: NWSChat Administration Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy  
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)  
About Us  
Career Opportunities