000
FXUS65 KBOU 111028
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MDT WED SEP 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED SEP 11 2019

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE NRN AND 
CNTRL ROCKIES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  QG FIELDS SHOW DECENT ASCENT 
WITH THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  FOR THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN, WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 BY 
LATE THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTN HOURS. WITH RATHER STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

MEANWHILE OVER NERN CO, THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONATY BOUNDARY THIS 
MORNING FROM NORTH OF DENVER TO FORT MORGAN TO AKRON.  A SFC LOW 
WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE DENVER AREA, WITH THE BOUNDARY ACTING AS 
A CONVERGENCE ZONE BY AFTN, IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA, FROM SOUTH 
CENTRAL WELD ACROSS MORGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. MLCAPE ALONG 
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. 
WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE SHEAR, SHOULD SEE A FEW 
SVR STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE, WITH ACTIVITY 
MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING. 
AS FOR HIGHS ACROSS NERN CO, READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 
70S NEAR THE WY BORDER WITH 80S ELSEWHERE. ACROSS SRN LINCOLN 
COUNTY HIGHS MAY REACH THE LOWER 90S.

FOR TONIGHT THE MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE 
ACROSS NRN CO AS A COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND 
STORMS OVER THE PLAINS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT.  MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN, CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS, MOISTURE 
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BY MIDNIGHT.  SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO 
10000 FEET, SO THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW 
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70 IN THE MTNS. 

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED SEP 11 2019

THURSDAY IS GOING TO BE A RECOVERY DAY AS COOLER AIR LINGERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS BEHIND TODAY'S PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S
WHICH IS ACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. EXPECT FOR
A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING, THE DAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL BE SUBSIDENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGS A WARMER
AIRMASS TO THE REGION. 

MORE WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WARM AIR FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES MOVING OVER THE STATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE PLAINS. SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON
SUNDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH SHOULD
KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING. IT SHOULD BE A GOOD WEEKEND
TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE SIGHTS AND SOUNDS OF THE STATE. 

WARM DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE STATE.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA APPEARS
TO BE THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
COLORADO BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WHICH WILL SOME AFFECT ON
THE TIMING OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD WILL BE SHOWERS BEGINNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND THEN SPREADING TO THE PLAINS A DAY OR 
SO LATER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED SEP 11 2019

ONCE AGAIN NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST. SURFACE LOW PRES WILL LIKELY
RDEVELOP NEAR DIA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN HOURS. WINDS 
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN WESTERLY, BUT MAY TRANSITION TO MORE
EASTERLY, BY LATE MORNING, IF THE LOW ENDS UP SOUTH OF DIA. BY 
MID AFTN, THE LOW IS FCST TO MOVE NORTHEAST, WITH A SURGE OF 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. EARLY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL 
BECOME NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. AS FAR AS TSTM 
CHANCES, IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH 
AND EAST OF DIA THIS AFTN. HOWEVER, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A 
HIGHER BASED STORM AFFECTING THE AIRPORT IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED SEP 11 2019

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
DROPPING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS. THUS FIRE DANGER WILL 
BE ELEVATED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK

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