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FGUS73 KIWX 132103
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
400 PM EDT THU FEB 13 2020

... ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC 
FORECAST OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

...KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN NORTHWEST OHIO...
...SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN 
MICHIGAN...

...MINOR LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK...

THIS IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE 
KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND FOR THE SAINT JOSEPH 
RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE 
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN 
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE 
OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE 
RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 11.2 FEET.

THE ST. JOSEPH RIVER AT SOUTH BEND, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5.5 
FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER 
WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 6.6 FEET. 

CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS...VALID FEBRUARY 
17 2020 - MAY 17 2020... 


KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5% 

KANKAKEE RIVER
DAVIS IN            10    8.4  8.6  9.0  9.6 10.6 11.2 11.9  

YELLOW RIVER
PLYMOUTH IN         13    7.9  8.8  9.4 10.7 12.4 13.2 13.5  
KNOX IN             10    6.7  7.0  7.4  8.0  8.9  9.7  9.9  


SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5% 

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN
THREE RIVERS MI      7    6.1  6.3  6.8  7.1  7.9  9.0  9.9  
MOTTVILLE MI         8    5.6  5.8  6.3  6.5  7.4  8.4  9.3  
ELKHART IN          24   21.7 21.9 22.2 22.8 23.8 25.6 26.5  
SOUTH BEND IN      5.5    4.0  4.3  4.8  5.5  6.6  8.0  9.7  
NILES MI            11    8.3  8.5  8.9  9.6 10.9 12.9 14.0   

ELKHART RIVER
GOSHEN IN            7    4.3  4.5  4.9  5.4  6.9  8.1  9.4  
COSPERVILLE IN       6    6.1  6.1  6.2  6.3  6.6  7.4  8.1  

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT 
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS 
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER, 
SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF 
PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING 
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A 
PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC 
PREDICTION SERVICE.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON AHPS AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS...
AFTER AN ABNORMALLY WET JANUARY, SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE 
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE KANKAKEE AND SAINT JOSEPH MICHIGAN RIVER 
BASINS. THIS MAKES THE AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SPRING FLOODING. 

PRIMARILY LIGHT, FRESH SNOW COVER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES COVERED THE 
REGION.
THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW CONTAINED WATER EQUIVALENT MEASUREMENTS OF A FEW 
TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONLY RECENTLY THE GROUND HAS REFROZEN, BUT WILL 
LIKELY THAW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW SLOW INFILTRATION TO GREATER 
DEPTHS. THIS EPISODIC FREEZE AND THAW CYCLE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
MARCH. 

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES 
THAT THERE IS AN INDICATION TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

THE CPC EXPERIMENTAL 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT THERE IS A 
SLIGHT INDICATION FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION. 

THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SPRING GREEN-UP THAT
WOULD PROVIDE AN OFFSET TO THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL. IT WOULD
ESPECIALLY LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD EVENT WITH
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.  

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND WATER LEVELS ON LARGER STEM RIVER LEVELS
ARE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. THESE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS POSE 
VULNERABILITY IN THE SHORT TERM FOR RIVER FLOODING. 

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK...
THERE IS CERTAINLY A LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK. THE AREA WILL BE 
VULNERABLE WITH RESPECT TO TRACKS OF STORM SYSTEMS THIS SPRING. 
AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY... 
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY 
DAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF 
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO 
SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND 
PROPERTY DAMAGE, USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE 
AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

THE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY
27 2020 FOR THE KANKAKEE AND SAINT JOSEPH MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS.

$$
MURPHY

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  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  National Weather Service
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