000
FGUS73 KIWX 132104
ESFIWX

- KIWX 131238
WRKMSL

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 PM EDT THU FEB 13 2020

... ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC 
FORECAST OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

...MAUMEE RIVER BASIN NORTHWEST OHIO...
...UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA...

...MINOR LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK...

THIS IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR
THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA. IN THE TABLE
BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 19.9 FEET.

BLUFFTON, INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. 
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE
TO OR ABOVE 12.1 FEET.


 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
 ...VALID FEBRUARY 18 2020 - MAY 18 2020... 

MAUMEE RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO
MONTPELIER OH     12.0     8.4  9.5 10.6 12.0 12.9 14.0 14.8
NEWVILLE IN       12.0     8.8 10.4 11.8 12.7 13.6 14.8 15.5
ST. JOE FT W. IN  12.0     4.6  5.9  7.5  9.6 11.2 15.8 19.8


SAINT MARYS RIVER
DECATUR IN        17.0    10.9 12.4 14.3 16.1 18.6 20.6 21.9
MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0     6.6  7.6  8.9 10.4 12.5 17.4 17.9


MAUMEE RIVER
FORT WAYNE IN     17.0     8.1 10.8 13.3 15.5 17.6 19.9 22.2
DEFIANCE OH       10.0     3.4  4.3  5.1  6.4  7.3  9.3 10.2
NAPOLEON OH       12.0     4.7  6.7  8.1 10.1 11.7 14.3 14.7


TIFFIN RIVER
STRYKER OH        11.0    11.3 11.6 12.7 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.5


BLANCHARD RIVER
OTTAWA OH         23.0    17.3 17.5 20.4 22.3 23.1 24.7 25.7


AUGLAIZE RIVER
FORT JENNINGS OH  13.0     6.0  7.7 10.1 12.0 13.9 15.7 17.0
DEFIANCE OH       21.0    10.6 11.6 13.8 15.9 17.3 20.9 21.4


UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

WABASH RIVER
LINN GROVE IN     11.0    10.0 10.6 11.7 12.6 14.2 15.2 15.4
BLUFFTON IN       10.0     6.9  7.6  9.3 10.3 12.1 13.9 14.5
WABASH IN         14.0     9.1  9.5 10.7 11.6 12.8 13.8 15.8
LOGANSPORT IN     15.0     7.4  7.8  8.3  8.9 10.0 10.9 11.5


TIPPECANOE RIVER
ORA IN            12.0     9.2  9.6 10.6 11.4 12.5 13.8 13.8
WINAMAC IN        10.0     7.0  7.2  8.2  9.0 10.0 11.5 11.7


MISSISSINEWA RIVER
MARION IN         12.0     4.5  5.4  6.1  7.4  8.5  9.7 10.5


EEL RIVER
N. MANCHESTER IN  11.0     8.7  9.5 10.4 11.5 13.1 15.3 16.2


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT 
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS 
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER, 
SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF 
PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING 
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A 
PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC 
PREDICTION SERVICE.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON AHPS AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS...
AFTER AN ABNORMALLY WET JANUARY, SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE 
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE MAUMEE AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASINS. THIS
MAKES THE AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SPRING FLOODING. 

PRIMARILY LIGHT, FRESH SNOW COVER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES COVERED THE 
REGION.
THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW CONTAINED WATER EQUIVALENT MEASUREMENTS OF A FEW 
TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONLY RECENTLY THE GROUND HAS REFROZEN, BUT WILL 
LIKELY THAW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW SLOW INFILTRATION TO GREATER 
DEPTHS. THIS EPISODIC FREEZE AND THAW CYCLE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
MARCH. 

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS THAT
THERE IS AN INDICATION TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

THE CPC EXPERIMENTAL 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT THERE IS A 
SLIGHT INDICATION FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THERE ARE 
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SPRING GREEN-UP THAT
WOULD PROVIDE AN OFFSET TO THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL. IT WOULD
ESPECIALLY LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD EVENT WITH
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.  

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND WATER LEVELS ON LARGER STEM RIVER LEVELS
ARE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. ONGOING MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING 
IN THE UPPER WABASH VALLEY BASIN. THESE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BODE 
FAVORABLY FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD EVENTS THIS SPRING. 

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK...
THERE IS CERTAINLY A LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK. THE AREA WILL BE 
VULNERABLE WITH RESPECT TO TRACKS OF STORM SYSTEMS THIS SPRING. 
ADDITIONAL MINOR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS INEVITABLE, WITH A MODERATE 
FLOOD EVENT POSSIBLE THIS SPRING. 

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY... 
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY 
DAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF 
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO 
SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND 
PROPERTY DAMAGE, USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE 
AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

THE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY
27 2020 FOR THE UPPER WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS.

$$ 
MURPHY

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  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  National Weather Service
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  Page Author: NWSChat Administration Team
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