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FGUS73 KIWX 272138
ESFIWX


PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

... ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC 
FORECAST...

THIS IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND FOR THE SAINT
JOSEPH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.

IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE 
OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE 
RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 11.2 FEET.

THE ST. JOSEPH RIVER AT SOUTH BEND, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 
5.5 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE 
RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE  6.6 FEET. 


 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
 ...VALID MARCH 2 2020 - MAY 31 2020... 

KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5% 

KANKAKEE RIVER
DAVIS IN            10    8.6  8.7  9.2  9.8 10.7 11.2 11.9  


YELLOW RIVER
PLYMOUTH IN         13    7.5  8.4  9.5 10.5 12.1 13.1 13.3  
KNOX IN             10    6.9  7.0  7.4  8.0  8.8  9.6  9.8  


SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5% 

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN
THREE RIVERS MI      7    6.3  6.3  6.7  7.3  8.0  8.6  9.0  
MOTTVILLE MI         8    5.8  5.8  6.3  6.7  7.4  8.0  8.4  
ELKHART IN          24   21.6 21.7 22.2 22.9 23.8 25.0 25.7  
SOUTH BEND IN      5.5    4.0  4.1  4.9  5.8  6.6  7.3  8.2  
NILES MI            11    8.3  8.3  9.0  9.8 11.0 12.0 13.0   


ELKHART RIVER
GOSHEN IN            7    4.1  4.3  4.8  5.4  6.6  8.0  9.1  
COSPERVILLE IN       6    6.0  6.0  6.1  6.3  6.6  7.0  7.9  


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS 
OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE 
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON
AHPS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON AHPS AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS...
AFTER AN ABNORMALLY WET JANUARY AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN 
FEBRUARY, SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE 
KANKAKEE AND SAINT JOSEPH MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS. THIS MAKES LITTLE 
CONSEQUENCE WITH RESPECT TO SPRING FLOODING. 

FRESH SNOW COVER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES COVERED THE REGION. THIS
AMOUNT OF SNOW CONTAINED WATER EQUIVALENT MEASUREMENTS OF 0.25 
TO 0.50 INCHES. ONLY RECENTLY THE GROUND HAS REFROZEN, BUT WILL 
LIKELY THAW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW SLOW INFILTRATION TO GREATER 
DEPTHS. ADDITIONALLY, RAINFALL OF UP TO ONE INCH ONTO THE SNOWPACK 
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING AS SOON AS 
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES 
THAT THERE IS AN INDICATION TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT INDICATION FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

THE CPC EXPERIMENTAL 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT THERE IS AN
INDICATION FAVORING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INDICATION 
FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INDICATES A HIGHER CHANCE FOR 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS SPRING. HOWEVER, 
GIVEN CURRENT AND FORECAST SCENARIO WOULD LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR A 
MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD EVENT WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.  

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND WATER LEVELS ON LARGER STEM RIVER LEVELS
ARE NEAR NORMAL. 

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK...
THERE IS CERTAINLY A LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK. THE AREA WILL BE 
VULNERABLE WITH RESPECT TO TRACKS OF STORM SYSTEMS THIS SPRING. 
AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY.

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY... 
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY 
DAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF 
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO 
SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND 
PROPERTY DAMAGE, USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE 
AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

THE NEXT AND FINAL LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON 
MARCH 12 2020 FOR THE KANKAKEE AND SAINT JOSEPH MICHIGAN RIVER BASINS.

$$
MURPHY

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  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  National Weather Service
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