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FGUS73 KIWX 272157
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
457 PM EST THU FEB 27 2020

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

... ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC 
FORECAST...

THIS IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR
THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA. IN THE TABLE
BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 20.7 FEET.

BLUFFTON, INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. 
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE
TO OR ABOVE 12.4 FEET.


 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
 ...VALID MARCH 3 2020 - JUNE 1 2020... 

MAUMEE RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO
MONTPELIER OH     12.0     8.5 10.1 10.6 12.1 12.9 14.3 14.8
NEWVILLE IN       12.0     9.3 10.7 11.8 12.5 13.9 15.0 15.8
ST. JOE FT W. IN  12.0     4.7  5.8  7.7  9.8 13.3 16.2 20.0


SAINT MARYS RIVER
DECATUR IN        17.0    10.8 11.7 14.3 16.1 18.7 20.6 21.3
MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0     6.6  7.7  8.8 10.7 12.9 15.9 18.1


MAUMEE RIVER
FORT WAYNE IN     17.0     8.6  9.6 14.2 16.6 18.2 20.7 23.3
DEFIANCE OH       10.0     3.7  4.4  5.2  6.2  8.1  9.5 10.9
NAPOLEON OH       12.0     5.3  6.6  8.5  9.9 12.5 14.3 15.5


TIFFIN RIVER
STRYKER OH        11.0     9.9 11.1 12.6 13.6 14.5 16.1 18.1


BLANCHARD RIVER
OTTAWA OH         23.0    17.0 17.7 20.0 21.8 23.2 25.1 26.2


AUGLAIZE RIVER
FORT JENNINGS OH  13.0     6.6  7.1  9.3 11.4 13.6 15.9 16.8
DEFIANCE OH       21.0    11.1 12.2 13.9 15.5 18.5 20.9 21.7


UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

WABASH RIVER
LINN GROVE IN     11.0     9.8 10.1 11.7 12.5 14.2 15.2 15.6
BLUFFTON IN       10.0     6.6  7.0  9.1 10.1 12.4 13.9 15.0
WABASH IN         14.0     8.4  8.7 10.3 11.5 13.0 15.5 19.4
LOGANSPORT IN     15.0     6.7  7.3  8.1  8.9 10.1 11.5 12.1


TIPPECANOE RIVER
ORA IN            12.0     8.9  9.5 10.4 11.6 12.5 14.1 15.4
WINAMAC IN        10.0     6.7  7.2  8.0  9.0 10.1 12.2 14.9


MISSISSINEWA RIVER
MARION IN         12.0     4.6  5.1  6.4  7.1  8.8 10.5 14.7


EEL RIVER
N. MANCHESTER IN  11.0     8.2  8.7 10.1 11.6 13.4 14.8 15.8


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS 
OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE 
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON
AHPS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON AHPS AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS...
AFTER AN ABNORMALLY WET JANUARY AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN 
FEBRUARY, SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE 
MAUMEE AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASINS. THIS MAKES LITTLE 
CONSEQUENCE WITH RESPECT TO SPRING FLOODING. 

FRESH SNOW COVER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES COVERED THE REGION. THIS
AMOUNT OF SNOW CONTAINED WATER EQUIVALENT MEASUREMENTS OF 0.5 TO 
1.0 INCHES. ONLY RECENTLY THE GROUND HAS REFROZEN, BUT WILL LIKELY 
THAW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW SLOW INFILTRATION TO GREATER 
DEPTHS. ADDITIONALLY, RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ONTO THE 
RIPE SNOWPACK AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE A RAPID RELEASE 
OF WATER AND INCREASED RUNOFF THAT COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING 
AS SOON AS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES 
THAT THERE IS AN INDICATION TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT INDICATION FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

THE CPC EXPERIMENTAL 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT THERE ARE 
NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TO BE EITHER 
ABOVE, BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INDICATES A HIGHER CHANCE FOR 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, BELOW OR NEAR 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 

...RIVER CONDITIONS...
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND WATER LEVELS ON LARGER STEM RIVER LEVELS
ARE NEAR NORMAL. 

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK...
THERE IS CERTAINLY A LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK. THE AREA WILL BE 
VULNERABLE WITH RESPECT TO TRACKS OF STORM SYSTEMS THIS SPRING. 
AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS LIKELY THIS SPRING. 
HOWEVER, THE CURRENT AND FORECAST SCENARIO WOULD LESSEN THE 
CHANCE FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD EVENT WITH MODERATE TO 
MAJOR FLOODING. 

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY... 
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY 
DAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF 
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO 
SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND 
PROPERTY DAMAGE, USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE 
AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.

THE NEXT AND FINAL LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
MARCH 12 2020 FOR THE UPPER WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS.

$$
MURPHY

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  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  National Weather Service
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