000
FGUS73 KPAH 111607
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-181200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1007 AM CST THU FEB 11 2021

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS PADUCAH SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS THE TIME
PERIOD FOR MID-FEBRUARY THROUGH MID-MAY. IT INCLUDES THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES FOR
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE OR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI BASINS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, SOUTHWEST INDIANA, SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY. THE FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE AS SPRING
TEMPERATURES RETURN ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FLOW.

FLOODING IN THIS REGION OCCURS MAINLY DUE TO CONDITIONS OF GROUND
MOISTURE, RIVER FLOWS, AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. ICE JAMS ARE
RARELY A FACTOR IN FLOODING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

SNOW...FROST AND SOIL CONDITIONS...PRECIPITATION SINCE LAST FALL HAS
BEEN BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION. NO FLOODING OCCURRED LAST
FALL OR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WINTER. A COUPLE OF HEAVIER
RAIN EVENTS HAVE CAUSED THE RIVERS TO RISE AND FALL ACCORDINGLY IN
JANUARY. ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS ROSE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEIR
RESPECTIVE FLOOD STAGES. OVERALL, RIVERS ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND RESERVOIRS HAVE ABUNDANT STORAGE CAPACITY.

SNOW HAS OCCURRED FREQUENTLY DURING THE PAST MONTH BUT WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION. HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE CONFINED TO THE UPPER
REACHES OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER BASINS. IN THESE AREAS
THERE ARE WIDESPREAD 6 TO 12 INCH AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES OF LIQUID WATER. FROST DEPTHS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH NO FROST DEPTH REPORTED IN THE SERVICE AREA. SOIL
MOISTURE IS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS, FLOOD RISK REMAINS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. ADDITIONAL FLOODING THROUGH THE
SPRING WILL BE MAINLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF SPRING STORM SYSTEMS.

...PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  02/16/2021 - 05/17/2021

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:GREEN RIVER
CALHOUN             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  53   46   37   32   <5    8
PARADISE           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  91   78   40   40   <5   <5
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI               27.0   32.0   35.0 : >95   69   66   39   42   17
:OHIO RIVER
EVANSVILLE          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  38   33   <5   <5   <5   <5
GOLCONDA            40.0   49.0   55.0 :  65   49    8    7   <5   <5
MOUNT VERNON        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  91   76    5    8   <5   <5
NEWBURGH DAM        38.0   48.0   56.0 : >95   84   <5    5   <5   <5
OWENSBORO           40.0   44.0   49.0 :  53   43    8    9   <5   <5
SHAWNEETOWN         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  94   88   49   41   <5   <5
J.T. MYERS DAM      37.0   49.0   60.0 :  92   80   10    8   <5   <5
:PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON           18.0   20.0   23.0 :  91   66   76   47   33   16
:SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  63   43   53   35   38   22
:WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY         15.0   20.0   23.0 : >95   84   46   25   <5   <5
:BLACK RIVER
POPLAR BLUFF        16.0   19.0   21.0 :  37   <5   11   <5    7   <5
:CURRENT RIVER
DONIPHAN            13.0   18.0   22.0 :  21   17    8   <5   <5   <5
VAN BUREN           20.0   23.0   27.0 :   8   <5    5   <5   <5   <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CAPE GIRARDEAU      32.0   37.0   42.0 :  77   79   43   46   20   24
NEW MADRID          34.0   40.0   44.0 :  43   52   10   11   <5   <5
THEBES              33.0   37.0   42.0 :  60   63   35   39   13   20
:OHIO RIVER
CAIRO               40.0   47.0   53.0 :  91   91   39   49   15   19
OLMSTED LOCK AND    36.0   42.0   47.0 :  91   83   40   52   19   25
PADUCAH             39.0   43.0   52.0 :  42   56   25   33   <5   <5
SMITHLAND DAM       40.0   48.0   50.0 :  28   47   <5    6   <5   <5
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER
FISK                20.0   22.0   26.0 :  13   22    9   17    6    9
PATTERSON           16.0   25.0   32.0 :  55   59    9   14   <5   <5
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD           20.0   27.0   34.0 :  66   61   16   11   <5   <5
MURPHYSBORO         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  66   63   33   33   13   13

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 02/16/2021 - 05/17/2021
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:GREEN RIVER
CALHOUN              17.0   17.4   19.5   23.5   28.3   29.0   29.5
PARADISE            378.9  380.1  381.5  384.7  388.0  390.2  392.8
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI                27.1   27.6   30.5   34.5   35.9   36.7   37.2
:OHIO RIVER
EVANSVILLE           35.3   36.7   38.8   41.3   42.8   43.8   44.5
GOLCONDA             36.0   36.8   39.1   41.3   45.8   48.4   50.2
MOUNT VERNON         33.8   35.2   37.6   40.1   42.2   44.0   45.1
NEWBURGH DAM         38.8   39.7   41.9   43.7   44.8   45.9   46.9
OWENSBORO            34.8   35.4   37.4   40.4   41.9   43.5   45.0
SHAWNEETOWN          32.8   34.2   38.7   42.9   46.7   48.9   51.1
J.T. MYERS DAM       36.2   37.4   40.9   43.8   46.8   48.9   50.5
:PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON            16.4   18.2   20.1   21.4   23.8   25.0   25.6
:SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY           10.0   10.7   12.6   17.5   22.6   23.8   25.0
:WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY          16.1   16.6   18.5   19.8   21.2   22.4   22.5
:BLACK RIVER
POPLAR BLUFF          9.9   10.9   12.0   14.9   16.9   19.2   21.9
:CURRENT RIVER
DONIPHAN              4.1    4.2    6.2    9.0   12.1   15.4   21.5
VAN BUREN             6.0    6.3    8.0   10.8   13.5   16.9   23.6
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CAPE GIRARDEAU       28.2   28.8   32.4   35.5   40.7   44.5   46.4
NEW MADRID           27.0   28.9   30.8   32.8   37.0   40.0   41.1
THEBES               26.9   27.8   31.5   34.0   39.0   42.6   44.5
:OHIO RIVER
CAIRO                38.6   40.4   42.7   45.1   49.5   54.7   56.3
OLMSTED LOCK AND     33.9   36.3   37.6   39.8   45.1   49.9   51.7
PADUCAH              31.9   33.8   34.7   37.1   42.9   46.8   49.2
SMITHLAND DAM        30.3   31.7   32.5   35.5   40.6   44.5   46.9
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER
FISK                  9.4    9.4   10.2   12.5   15.2   21.2   26.5
PATTERSON             8.1    9.7   12.6   16.8   20.5   23.9   28.0
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD            16.1   16.8   18.7   21.1   23.9   29.9   32.5
MURPHYSBORO          16.0   17.2   20.6   24.3   32.0   38.2   42.5

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 02/16/2021 - 05/17/2021
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:GREEN RIVER
CALHOUN              13.1   12.6   11.8   11.3   10.8   10.6   10.5
PARADISE            369.7  368.6  366.9  365.8  365.1  364.8  364.7
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI                 9.5    8.6    7.3    4.9    4.4    3.9    3.6
:OHIO RIVER
EVANSVILLE           18.5   17.2   16.3   15.2   14.7   14.2   14.0
GOLCONDA             30.3   29.9   29.7   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6
MOUNT VERNON         24.2   24.0   23.9   23.7   23.6   23.5   23.4
NEWBURGH DAM         19.7   18.3   16.9   15.5   14.6   14.2   13.9
OWENSBORO            19.4   19.2   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0
SHAWNEETOWN          21.2   18.8   17.9   17.0   16.3   15.9   15.6
J.T. MYERS DAM       22.6   19.7   18.5   16.9   15.6   15.0   14.4
:PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON             9.6    8.7    7.7    6.4    5.5    4.6    4.1
:SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY            5.6    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.4    5.3    5.3
:WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY           4.9    4.5    4.0    3.7    3.4    2.8    2.6
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD             9.6    9.5    9.4    8.7    7.8    7.1    6.7
MURPHYSBORO           8.1    8.0    8.0    7.6    6.3    4.9    4.6

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...

A VERY WINTRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION FROZEN WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 18 THROUGH 24 CALLS FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DURING THIS
TIME, NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 40 DEGREES AND RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD IS AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS
BETWEEN AND 4 AND 4 1/2 INCHES. THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY
CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/PAH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
FEBRUARY 25.

$$