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FGUS73 KIWX 251730
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1230 PM EDT THU FEB 25 2021

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2 FOR THE MAUMEE 
AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASINS...

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC
FORECAST...

THIS IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR
THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA. IN THE TABLE
BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 19.8 FEET.

BLUFFTON, INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. 
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE
TO OR ABOVE 11.7 FEET.


 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
 ...VALID MARCH 1 2021 - MAY 30 2021... 

MAUMEE RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO
MONTPELIER OH     12.0    10.3 10.6 11.3 12.2 13.2 14.4 15.0
NEWVILLE IN       12.0    11.3 11.7 11.9 12.7 14.0 14.5 15.4
ST. JOE FT W. IN  12.0     6.8  7.2  8.3 10.0 12.6 15.8 20.0


SAINT MARYS RIVER
DECATUR IN        17.0    14.7 15.4 17.0 18.1 19.8 21.3 21.8
MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0     9.2  9.8 10.7 11.8 14.1 16.0 17.8


MAUMEE RIVER
FORT WAYNE IN     17.0    12.8 14.1 15.7 17.4 18.6 19.8 21.3
DEFIANCE OH       10.0     5.0  5.1  5.9  6.9  8.4  9.7 11.3
NAPOLEON OH       12.0     7.5  8.2  9.2 10.9 12.9 14.1 14.7


TIFFIN RIVER
STRYKER OH        11.0    11.6 11.8 12.3 13.3 14.0 15.5 16.0


BLANCHARD RIVER
OTTAWA OH         23.0    19.6 20.7 21.7 22.7 24.1 26.1 26.3


AUGLAIZE RIVER
FORT JENNINGS OH  13.0     9.3  9.9 11.1 13.1 14.9 17.0 17.2
DEFIANCE OH       21.0    13.3 13.6 15.0 17.2 19.2 20.7 21.7


UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN...
LOCATION         FS(FT)    95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5%

WABASH RIVER
LINN GROVE IN     11.0     9.9 10.4 11.3 12.1 13.8 14.5 15.1
BLUFFTON IN       10.0     7.1  7.6  8.8  9.9 11.7 12.6 13.2
WABASH IN         14.0     9.1  9.5 10.6 11.2 12.8 14.0 15.1
LOGANSPORT IN     15.0     6.9  7.5  8.0  8.5  9.4 10.7 11.9


TIPPECANOE RIVER
ORA IN            12.0     8.9  9.2  9.9 11.1 11.9 12.6 13.3
WINAMAC IN        10.0     6.3  6.7  7.3  8.3  9.2 10.0 10.8


MISSISSINEWA RIVER
MARION IN         12.0     4.5  4.9  5.7  7.0  8.6  9.5 11.7


SALAMONIE RIVER
PORTLAND IN       11.0     5.7  6.1  7.3  8.2  9.2 14.0 18.8
WARREN IN         12.0     8.7  9.0  9.6 10.2 10.9 12.5 13.2


EEL RIVER
N. MANCHESTER IN  11.0     7.2  7.7  8.6 10.5 12.5 15.8 16.9


THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG
RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON
AHPS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES.

...SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS...

THE REGION SAW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SNOWPACK OVER THE PAST 
TWO WEEKS. STARTING OUT WITH A SNOWPACK OF 4 TO 9 INCHES 
INCREASED 8 TO 14 INCHES AFTER A POTENT SYSTEM BROUGHT SUB-FREEZING 
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. AS TEMPERATURES WARMED, THIS 
SNOWPACK BEGAN RAPIDLY MELTING TO WHERE THE SNOWPACK RANGES FROM A 
TRACE TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL INDIANA TO NEARLY
COMPLETELY MELTED ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. AT ITS PEAK THE SNOWPACK
HELD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR
2.5 INCHES. 

WHILE FROST DEPTH REACHED A PEAK OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, IT HAS SINCE 
REDUCED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH.  

NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE (TOP 10 CENTIMETERS) HAS IMPROVED 
SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SNOW HAS MELTED 
HOWEVER,DEEPER MOISTURE (TOP 100 CENTIMETERS) IS MUCH BELOW NORMAL, 
GENERALLY 10TH PERCENTILE OR LESS. 


...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS FROM NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO 
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF MARCH WHILE REMAINING 
MOSTLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION IF FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY. 

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES 
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES 
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. 

CPC'S OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INDICATES A SLIGHT SIGNAL FOR 
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION 
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MIRRORS THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 
THROUGH MAY WITH BOTH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION 
BEING FAVORED.

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS... 

LONG TERM ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG
A SWATH FROM WEST CENTRAL INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER 
MICHIGAN.  INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. IN THE SHORTER TERM, PRECIPITATION 
TOTALS RANGE FROM AROUND 50 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL THROUGHOUT 
MUCH OF THE REGION.  

...RIVER CONDITIONS...

WE ARE SEEING STREAMFLOWS RESPOND TO THE RECENT SNOW MELT AS MOST 
RIVERS ARE SHOWING EITHER NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL FLOW FOR THIS TIME 
OF YEAR. 

...OVERALL FLOOD RISK...

OVERALL, THE FLOOD RISK IS CONSIDERED ABOVE NORMAL WITH MINOR RIVER 
FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT 
SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EVENTS THIS SPRING. WHILE THE RISK 
IS LOWER, LOCALIZED MODERATE FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE; ESPECIALLY 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, SUBSTANTIAL ICE 
FORMATION ON AREA RIVERS HAS INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM 
FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM AS ICE THAWS.  

...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF 
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO
SAVE PROPERTY.

THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE, USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF 
PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY 
ROADS.

THE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, 
MARCH 11, 2021 FOR THE UPPER WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS.


$$

MURPHY/MORRIS

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