000
FXUS64 KEWX 141724
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2021

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN ONLY AT AUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HOLD ON
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THERE. VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS OR POSSIBLE VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT IS BELOW 20 
PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2021/ 

UPDATE...
THE REST OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND WE
HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
RESIDUAL FLOW IN CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A BIT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2021/ 

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING IN DEWITT, KARNES, AND LAVACA
COUNTY. RAINFALL  FOR THE EVENT SHOW 1-3 INCHES WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 3-7 INCHES EAST OF I35 WITH ISOLATED POCKETS 
OF 10+ INCHES IN GONZALES COUNTY. THIS HAS LED TO A RESPONSE ON THE 
AREA RIVERS WITH MANY FORECAST TO GO INTO MODERATE FLOOD CATEGORIES. 
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ADDITIONAL PRECIP TODAY SO FOR AREAS WHICH ARE 
DRY NOW, SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2021/ 

AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION HAS NOW PUSHED FULLY EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TERMINALS. IN THE WAKE OF THE RAINFALL THE MOIST AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR
LOW CEILINGS AND LOWER VISIBILITY TO BUILD IN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
AUS AND DRT ARE CURRENTLY LIFR WITH LOW CEILINGS AT AUS AND LOW
VISIBILITY AT DRT. THE SAN ANTONIO TERMINALS AT SAT/SSF CURRENTLY
HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE VFR RETURNS AT ALL SITES.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST MVFR, IF NOT LOWER CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND AND
SURFACE LAYER. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING AT AUS AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY, SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND SHOWN THE FROPA AT 17Z. IT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, JUST
BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2021/ 

UPDATE...
TWO QUICK FORECAST UPDATES. IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT RAINS THE
MOIST GROUND AND LOW LEVELS HAS ALLOWED FOG TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HILL COUNTRY, EDWARDS PLATEAU, AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS. WHILE SOME AREAS COULD SEE
VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE PRODUCING PATCHY DENSE FOG,
MOST AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE 1 TO 3 MILES VISIBILITY. 

WITH THE END OF THE RAINS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA SOME ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES WERE DROPPED FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INCLUDING THE
COUNTIES TO THE WEST OF SAN ANTONIO, THOSE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY,
AND TRAVIS AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. ATASCOSA TO HAYS COUNTY WERE KEPT
IN FOR NOW DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION OR LOW WATER CROSSING 
FLOODING, ALONG WITH POINTS EAST WHERE THE MAIN COMPLEX IS STILL
WORKING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELED LATER THIS MORNING, WITH THE WATCH AXED EARLY AS A WHOLE
ONCE THE COMPLEX PUSHES OUT OF OUR AREA. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2021/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOW PUSHED EAST 
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH SOME ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE 
MAIN LINE. THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEALTHY 
RAINFALL RATES WITH MRMS PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION SHOWING A LARGE 
SWATCH OF 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM BEXAR COUNTY 
THROUGH COMAL AND INTO HAYS. IT ALSO CLIPS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF KENDALL AND BLANCO COUNTY. THUS FAR IT LOOKS LIKE THE 
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FELL FROM JUST EAST OF BULVERDE TO CANYON LAKE TO 
WIMBERLEY. 

THE 10 PM ADVISORY FROM THE NHC HAD PAMELA DISSIPATING WEST OF 
LAREDO AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE PASS. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS ANY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING FROM PAMELA IS NO 
LONGER EVIDENT. BASED ON THE RADAR AND GOES-16 WATER VAPOR THOUGH IT 
IS OBVIOUS THAT THE MOISTURE FROM PAMELA IS WHAT FED THE HEAVY RAINS 
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT SOME SITES AND THE WPC 
SURFACE FRONT ANALYSIS THE CONVECTION DID HELP PUSH THE WEAK PACIFIC 
FRONT THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA. 

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THIS MORNING AND THE DAY TODAY THE BULK OF 
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. HIGH RESOLUTION 
MODELS DO SUPPORT WHAT WE ARE SEEING ON RADAR AS OF 2 AM WHICH IS 
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BEHIND THE MAIN COMPLEX. THIS 
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL 
WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BEING THAT IT WILL BE EAST AND OUT OF THE 
AREA BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON. BASED ON HOW THE ISOLATED CONVECTION 
EVOLVES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SOME OF THE WESTERN END OF THE 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE EARLY, WITH THE REST 
BEING DROPPED EARLY LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION 
ENDS BY MID MORNING A DRY REST OF THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING IS IN 
STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE 
DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 
70S. 

THE STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES BY MID-DAY TOMORROW. THIS IS THE FRONT WE 
HAVE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR THAT WILL GIVE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THE 
FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL. WHILE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE 
PULLED NORTHEAST BY THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER 
VALUES DO REMAIN AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE 
ENOUGH PER SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS TO DEVELOP A THIN LINE 
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE SOME 
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE COMPLETELY DRY OR HAVE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND 
STORMS, OTHERS LIKE THE TEXAS TECH WRF, NAM NEST, AND FV3 HIGH RES 
DO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND I-10 CORRIDOR 
SOUTHWARD. SOME MODELS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY 
RECOVERED FROM THIS MORNING'S EVENT TO SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED 20 POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, 
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. BEHIND THE FRONT 
NORTH WINDS WILL KICK IN USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. GIVEN THE 
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SOME AREAS OF THE HILL COUNTRY MAY NOT 
GET OUT OF THE 70S ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PUSH OVER TEXAS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING AND HIGHS SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY. SUNDAY'S LOWS 
WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FURTHER WHILE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME. 
MONDAY THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND THE LOW LEVEL 
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE 
SOUTHEAST BRINGING A WARMER, MOISTER AIRMASS BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL 
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND 
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME MODELS ARE BRINGING 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK, BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD 
AGREEMENT. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND SEE WHICH WAY 
THE CONSENSUS TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  70  82  54  72 /  20  -   10   0   0 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  84  69  84  52  72 /  30  -   10   0   0 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  69  85  54  72 /  30  -   20   0   0 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  65  77  50  71 /  10   0   0   0   0 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  69  85  56  77 /   0   0  20   0   0 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  68  80  51  71 /  20  -   -    0   0 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             88  68  87  52  74 /  -   -   20   0   0 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  68  85  52  73 /  30  -   10   0   0 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  73  87  55  74 /  60  -   20   0   0 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  71  86  55  72 /  20  -   20   0   0 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  72  88  57  74 /  20  -   20   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
LONG-TERM...17
DECISION SUPPORT...MORRIS

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