000
FXUS64 KEWX 160850
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
250 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2021

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ALONG SIDE THE ESCARPMENT AND TO THE NORTH 
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. HIRES MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS TREND GOING FOR MOST OF THE MORNING 
WHILE EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. ALSO, HIRES 
MODELS SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS, NORTHERN 
PART OF BEXAR COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST SUCH AS HONDO, 
BANDERA AND REAL COUNTIES BY 6 AM. BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM, FOG IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE OVER SOME AREAS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND 
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU UNDER A LIGHT TO CALM WIND 
REGIME. NOW, IF THE WIND STAYS AT CURRENT LEVELS OF 7 TO 9 MPH (AS 
OF 230 AM), THE STORY IS LIKELY TO BE PATCHY FOG WITH A FEW SPOTS OF 
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THOSE LOW CLOUDS AND THE PATCHY TO AREAS OF 
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND MIX OUT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 11 AM. 
AFTERWARD, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO 
SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND THE UPPER 70S 
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND 
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH NEARLY 
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. GUSTS 
COULD REACH THE 15 TO 25 MPH MARK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.

A GREAT START FOR THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN 
THE 60S AROUND 9 PM, HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE INCREASE 
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING OVER MOST AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE 
BETWEEN THE 50S WHERE LESS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT TO LOWER 
60S WHERE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP.

ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS DISAPPEAR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT PARTLY 
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S 
AND LOWER 80S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON. MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THE BELOW LONG TERM SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE LARGE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF THE UP OF MICHIGAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY SHOWN IN THE GFS AND NAM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE LOW, WITH
BETTER CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY. THE
FROPA IS NOW IN THE RANGE OF THE LATEST 00Z TEXAS TECH WRF, AND IT
SHOWS NEXT TO NOTHING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS NOW SHOWS
NO DECENT QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THE FROPA AS WELL. ANY PRECIPITATION 
THAT DOES FORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY 
MID- MORNING ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR 
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NAM AND ECMWF NUMERICAL 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THE 
NBM FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP ON THIS TREND AS WELL. WHILE
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 
60S, THE GFS AND THE NBM CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. 
WILL RUN WITH THE NBM FOR FORECAST HIGHS, BUT PULL IT DOWN SLIGHTLY 
BY BLENDING IN THE COOLER NAM. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG
WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RAPIDLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ALL OF THE MODELS DO SOME QPF ASSOCIATED THIS SECOND FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLOT POPS PRESENT IN THE NBM. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  62  81  51  64 /  -   -    0  20   0 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  60  82  50  64 /   0  -    0  30   0 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  59  83  52  65 /   0  -    0  30   0 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            79  61  79  48  61 /   0   0   0  10   0 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  58  81  53  67 /   0  -    0   0   0 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  62  81  49  63 /   0   0   0  20   0 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  57  83  52  67 /  -    0   0  10   0 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  59  82  51  64 /  -   -    0  30   0 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  84  53  66 /   0   0   0  30  -  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  81  53  65 /   0   0   0  20   0 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  62  84  56  67 /   0   0   0  20   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...17
LONG-TERM...TREADWAY
260 
FXUS64 KEWX 160850
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
250 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2021

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ALONG SIDE THE ESCARPMENT AND TO THE NORTH 
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. HIRES MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS TREND GOING FOR MOST OF THE MORNING 
WHILE EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. ALSO, HIRES 
MODELS SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS, NORTHERN 
PART OF BEXAR COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST SUCH AS HONDO, 
BANDERA AND REAL COUNTIES BY 6 AM. BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM, FOG IS 
EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE OVER SOME AREAS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND 
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU UNDER A LIGHT TO CALM WIND 
REGIME. NOW, IF THE WIND STAYS AT CURRENT LEVELS OF 7 TO 9 MPH (AS 
OF 230 AM), THE STORY IS LIKELY TO BE PATCHY FOG WITH A FEW SPOTS OF 
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THOSE LOW CLOUDS AND THE PATCHY TO AREAS OF 
FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND MIX OUT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 11 AM. 
AFTERWARD, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO 
SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND THE UPPER 70S 
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND 
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH NEARLY 
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. GUSTS 
COULD REACH THE 15 TO 25 MPH MARK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.

A GREAT START FOR THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN 
THE 60S AROUND 9 PM, HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE INCREASE 
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING OVER MOST AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE 
BETWEEN THE 50S WHERE LESS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT TO LOWER 
60S WHERE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP.

ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS DISAPPEAR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT PARTLY 
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S 
AND LOWER 80S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON. MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THE BELOW LONG TERM SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE LARGE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF THE UP OF MICHIGAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY SHOWN IN THE GFS AND NAM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE LOW, WITH
BETTER CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY. THE
FROPA IS NOW IN THE RANGE OF THE LATEST 00Z TEXAS TECH WRF, AND IT
SHOWS NEXT TO NOTHING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS NOW SHOWS
NO DECENT QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THE FROPA AS WELL. ANY PRECIPITATION 
THAT DOES FORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY 
MID- MORNING ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR 
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NAM AND ECMWF NUMERICAL 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THE 
NBM FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP ON THIS TREND AS WELL. WHILE
THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 
60S, THE GFS AND THE NBM CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. 
WILL RUN WITH THE NBM FOR FORECAST HIGHS, BUT PULL IT DOWN SLIGHTLY 
BY BLENDING IN THE COOLER NAM. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG
WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RAPIDLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ALL OF THE MODELS DO SOME QPF ASSOCIATED THIS SECOND FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLOT POPS PRESENT IN THE NBM. MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              80  62  81  51  64 /  -   -    0  20   0 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  60  82  50  64 /   0  -    0  30   0 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     82  59  83  52  65 /   0  -    0  30   0 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            79  61  79  48  61 /   0   0   0  10   0 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  58  81  53  67 /   0  -    0   0   0 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        80  62  81  49  63 /   0   0   0  20   0 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             83  57  83  52  67 /  -    0   0  10   0 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  59  82  51  64 /  -   -    0  30   0 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   83  63  84  53  66 /   0   0   0  30  -  
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       80  61  81  53  65 /   0   0   0  20   0 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           85  62  84  56  67 /   0   0   0  20   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...17
LONG-TERM...TREADWAY

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