000 FXUS64 KEWX 160850 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 250 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2021 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ALONG SIDE THE ESCARPMENT AND TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. HIRES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS TREND GOING FOR MOST OF THE MORNING WHILE EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. ALSO, HIRES MODELS SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS, NORTHERN PART OF BEXAR COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST SUCH AS HONDO, BANDERA AND REAL COUNTIES BY 6 AM. BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM, FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE OVER SOME AREAS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU UNDER A LIGHT TO CALM WIND REGIME. NOW, IF THE WIND STAYS AT CURRENT LEVELS OF 7 TO 9 MPH (AS OF 230 AM), THE STORY IS LIKELY TO BE PATCHY FOG WITH A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THOSE LOW CLOUDS AND THE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND MIX OUT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 11 AM. AFTERWARD, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH NEARLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. GUSTS COULD REACH THE 15 TO 25 MPH MARK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. A GREAT START FOR THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AROUND 9 PM, HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING OVER MOST AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE 50S WHERE LESS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT TO LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS DISAPPEAR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THE BELOW LONG TERM SECTION. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE LARGE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE UP OF MICHIGAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN THE GFS AND NAM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE LOW, WITH BETTER CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY. THE FROPA IS NOW IN THE RANGE OF THE LATEST 00Z TEXAS TECH WRF, AND IT SHOWS NEXT TO NOTHING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS NOW SHOWS NO DECENT QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THE FROPA AS WELL. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY MID- MORNING ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NAM AND ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THE NBM FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP ON THIS TREND AS WELL. WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, THE GFS AND THE NBM CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. WILL RUN WITH THE NBM FOR FORECAST HIGHS, BUT PULL IT DOWN SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN THE COOLER NAM. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RAPIDLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ALL OF THE MODELS DO SOME QPF ASSOCIATED THIS SECOND FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLOT POPS PRESENT IN THE NBM. MONDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 62 81 51 64 / - - 0 20 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 60 82 50 64 / 0 - 0 30 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 83 52 65 / 0 - 0 30 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 79 48 61 / 0 0 0 10 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 58 81 53 67 / 0 - 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 62 81 49 63 / 0 0 0 20 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 57 83 52 67 / - 0 0 10 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 82 51 64 / - - 0 30 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 63 84 53 66 / 0 0 0 30 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 61 81 53 65 / 0 0 0 20 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 84 56 67 / 0 0 0 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...17 LONG-TERM...TREADWAY
260 FXUS64 KEWX 160850 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 250 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2021 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ALONG SIDE THE ESCARPMENT AND TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING. HIRES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THIS TREND GOING FOR MOST OF THE MORNING WHILE EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. ALSO, HIRES MODELS SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS, NORTHERN PART OF BEXAR COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST SUCH AS HONDO, BANDERA AND REAL COUNTIES BY 6 AM. BETWEEN 7 AM AND 9 AM, FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DENSE OVER SOME AREAS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU UNDER A LIGHT TO CALM WIND REGIME. NOW, IF THE WIND STAYS AT CURRENT LEVELS OF 7 TO 9 MPH (AS OF 230 AM), THE STORY IS LIKELY TO BE PATCHY FOG WITH A FEW SPOTS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THOSE LOW CLOUDS AND THE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND MIX OUT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 11 AM. AFTERWARD, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH NEARLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. GUSTS COULD REACH THE 15 TO 25 MPH MARK ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. A GREAT START FOR THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AROUND 9 PM, HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS RETURNING OVER MOST AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE 50S WHERE LESS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT TO LOWER 60S WHERE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS DISAPPEAR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE DETAILS ON THIS IN THE BELOW LONG TERM SECTION. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE LARGE UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE UP OF MICHIGAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY SHOWN IN THE GFS AND NAM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE LOW, WITH BETTER CHANCES EAST OF I-35 BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY. THE FROPA IS NOW IN THE RANGE OF THE LATEST 00Z TEXAS TECH WRF, AND IT SHOWS NEXT TO NOTHING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS NOW SHOWS NO DECENT QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THE FROPA AS WELL. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY MID- MORNING ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. NAM AND ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THE NBM FORECAST HIGHS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP ON THIS TREND AS WELL. WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, THE GFS AND THE NBM CONTINUE TO FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. WILL RUN WITH THE NBM FOR FORECAST HIGHS, BUT PULL IT DOWN SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN THE COOLER NAM. COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS RAPIDLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ALL OF THE MODELS DO SOME QPF ASSOCIATED THIS SECOND FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THE SLOT POPS PRESENT IN THE NBM. MONDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 62 81 51 64 / - - 0 20 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 60 82 50 64 / 0 - 0 30 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 82 59 83 52 65 / 0 - 0 30 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 79 61 79 48 61 / 0 0 0 10 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 87 58 81 53 67 / 0 - 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 80 62 81 49 63 / 0 0 0 20 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 57 83 52 67 / - 0 0 10 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 59 82 51 64 / - - 0 30 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 83 63 84 53 66 / 0 0 0 30 - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 61 81 53 65 / 0 0 0 20 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 62 84 56 67 / 0 0 0 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...17 LONG-TERM...TREADWAY
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