000
FXUS64 KEWX 221723 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1123 AM CST MON NOV 22 2021

.AVIATION...18Z TAF PACKAGE

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF FEW TO SCT HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. THE NORTHERLY FLOW SLOWLY SUBSIDES THIS 
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISH AND PICK UP TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CST MON NOV 22 2021/ 

AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
ALL CLOUD LAYERS IN THE CWA ARE NOW VFR AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
SPILL SOUTH IN THE FRONTAL LAYER. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME CIGS IN THE
6-12 KFT RANGE IN THE DAYTIME, BUT THOSE TOO SHOULD ERODE FOR
TONIGHT. WINDS ALONG I-35 MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER 
DAYBREAK BEFORE EASING OFF BY MID AFTERNOON. THUS CHOSE A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PREVAILING SPEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CIRRUS SKIES WILL FINISH OUT THE LATTER 12-18 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIODS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST MON NOV 22 2021/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MULTIPLE LAYERS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY. COLD AIR 
ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS ON TRACK TO LIGHTEN UP BY MIDDAY AS SOME SUNSHINE BEGINS 
TO MODIFY THE FRONTAL INVERSION IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS REFLECTED 
IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE COLLECTIVELY TRENDED WARMER FOR 
TODAY'S MAXT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. ONLY SOME STREAMING CIRRUS IS 
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT, AND THUS TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE PLENTY COOL, 
BUT PROBABLY NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE FREEZING MARK AS WE WERE 
CONCERNED ABOUT IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. NEVERTHELESS THE LOW 
CLOUD/LOW DEW POINT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DROP PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE 
HILL COUNTRY AND AND ADJACENT CENTRAL TX COUNTIES INTO THE MID/UPPER 
30S. HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN DEPICTED FOR THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH SOUTH 
WINDS RETURNING AND THE MAXT FORECAST LOOKING SEASONAL FOR LATE 
NOVEMBER.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE DEPTH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. LOW TEMPERATURES MODIFY 
CONSIDERABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING, INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PLAINS SOUTHWEST INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DETACHING NEAR BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THANKSGIVING DAY AND 
NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT AND IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND NAM12 WITH
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THANKSGIVING MORNING. AS THE FRONT
REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
IT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.5-1.8" 
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, SO THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS 
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER, DOWNGLIDE DEVELOPS RATHER QUICKLY 
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN AREAS IN 
THE EVENING, SO FLOODING IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. BREEZY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES 
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA MAY NOT GET OUT OF
THE UPPER 50S AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD FALL FROM LOWER 70S
AND UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S. COOLER AND DRY 
CONDITIONS FRIDAY, WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS, AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF,
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE CANADIAN WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
ENERGY AND MOISTURE STRIPPING OFF OF THE BAJA CUT OFF LOW AND MOVING 
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY, GENERATING ELEVATED 
SHOWERS. WE ARE CARRYING 20-30 POPS FOR THE TIME BEING ON SATURDAY AS
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF QPF. A POTENTIAL 
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE 
DECREASES SUNDAY DUE TO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE CUT
OFF LOW, WITH THE CANADIAN OPENS AND BRINGS THE REMNANTS RIGHT 
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL WEST OF 
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  43  72  55  75 /   0   0   0   0  10 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  37  71  52  76 /   0   0   0   0  10 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  40  72  53  77 /   0   0   0   0  -  
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  40  69  54  72 /   0   0   0   0  -  
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  47  74  56  77 /   0   0   0   0  -  
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        68  39  70  54  75 /   0   0   0   0  -  
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  40  73  54  76 /   0   0   0   0  -  
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  39  71  53  76 /   0   0   0   0  -  
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  41  73  55  77 /   0   0   0   0  10 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  43  71  56  75 /   0   0   0   0  -  
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  43  74  56  79 /   0   0   0   0  -  

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...BRADY
LONG-TERM...05
DECISION SUPPORT...MORRIS

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