585 FXUS64 KEWX 141249 AAA AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 649 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2022 .UPDATE... PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DRT. WINDS WILL TEND TO EASE AROUND 00Z, THEN GRADUALLY TREND TO A MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE AT AREA TAF SITES BETWEEN 07-09Z, WITH ANOTHER INCREASE ANTICIPATED AROUND 15Z AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. WIND GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE TO AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA (>40KT) AT SAT AND AUS FROM MID-MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY TEND TO EASE SLIGHTLY AROUND 00Z SUN, BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2022/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW QUITE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE HILL COUNTRY, READINGS ARE AS COLD AS THE LOWER 30S, WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS ARE AS WARM AS THE LOWER 50S WHERE SOME LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE. SOME FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, IS NOTED ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD MAKE A RUN FOR SOUTHERN DEWITT AND LAVACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE WINDS SHOULD TREND TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST AND PERHAPS EVEN LIGHT WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH SUNRISE IN THIS REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT AUSTIN MABRY, WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE (78 DEGREES) CURRENTLY WITHIN 1 DEGREE OF TYING THE RECORD (79 DEGREES SET IN 1980). A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AROUND 10 PM FROM THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE HILL COUNTRY, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE BIG STORY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SET TO OCCUR ACROSS ALL AREAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY, WE EXPECT THE STRONGER WINDS TO BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH SUNRISE AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARD, MIXING WILL OCCUR AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS. IF THE MIXING MANAGES TO OCCUR A LITTLE EARLIER, WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 55 MPH ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID TO LATE MORNING. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN IN THE EVENING HOURS, ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE NPW OR RFW AN EXTRA HOUR TO 01Z BASED ON THE MOS GUIDANCES FOR SOME AREAS. BY 03Z SUNDAY, THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A SHARP DROP IN WINDS; MEANWHILE CENTRAL TX AND THE COASTAL PRAIRIES MAY SEE A STIFF WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL STILL BE CHURNING AT 5 TO 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, SO WE REMAINED CLOSE TO NBM WITH MAINLY HILL COUNTRY AREAS TO SEE THE HARD FREEZE AND MOST AREAS GETTING ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE. CAA CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SW WINDS RETURN OVER WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SW WIND RETURN THAT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MAY END UP DECOUPLING, SO THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE PARTS OF CENTRAL TX, ESPECIALLY VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE THE MORNING LOWS TREND COLDER FOR MONDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY GETTING SOME BRIEF HARD FREEZE TEMPS OVER THE BLACKLAND PRAIRIES EAST OF I-35. MEANWHILE THE ROCKSPRINGS AREA AND OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE MILDER MIN TEMPS MONDAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. SEASONAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IMPACTS TEMPERATURES AFTER THE SUN GETS CLOSE TO SETTING. THE MERIDIONAL PATTERN ALOFT SHARPENS WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND THE CAA PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WILL LAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. THIS COULD SET UP AN INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE AN ELEVATED AREA OF INSTABILITY COULD BRING A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET BEFORE MODIFYING TO RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW, THE WORDING OF THE WEATHER GRIDS ARE ALL RAIN, AND THE PERIOD OF CONCERN IS JUST OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST PACKAGE. UNLESS THE STRENGTH OF THE LATE WEDNESDAY FRONT TRENDS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER, THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL IMPACTS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS WHAT THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EXPERIENCED EARLY TUESDAY, WHICH IS BRIEF SLEET CHANGING TO RAIN. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE MOISTURE REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH, AN ONLY A BROKEN LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL ACROSS THE COLDER LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER... FOR TODAY, AN INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE AROUND SUNSET ACROSS ALL AREAS. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY SHOULD ONLY REMAIN FAIR TO POOR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS DRY AIR REMAINS INTACT THIS EVENING. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS ALL AREAS FROM LATE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DRIEST AIR AND SLIGHTLY "WARMER" TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S STILL LOOKS TO PRODUCE THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DROUGHT STRESSED AND CURED FUELS IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS REGION WILL REMAIN INTACT. FARTHER EAST, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 78 42 51 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 77 42 53 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 43 56 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 37 48 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 46 59 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 40 50 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 78 43 58 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 43 53 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 45 53 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 44 54 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 46 59 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT- DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS- KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL- TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ATASCOSA-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FRIO-KINNEY-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-UVALDE- VAL VERDE-ZAVALA. && $$ SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...PLATT LONG-TERM...OAKS
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