585 
FXUS64 KEWX 141249 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2022

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
DRT. WINDS WILL TEND TO EASE AROUND 00Z, THEN GRADUALLY TREND TO A
MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AT AREA TAF SITES BETWEEN 07-09Z, WITH ANOTHER INCREASE
ANTICIPATED AROUND 15Z AS DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES. WIND GUSTS COULD
BE CLOSE TO AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA (>40KT) AT SAT AND AUS
FROM MID-MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY TEND
TO EASE SLIGHTLY AROUND 00Z SUN, BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2022/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW QUITE A WIDE RANGE IN 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE HILL COUNTRY, READINGS ARE AS 
COLD AS THE LOWER 30S, WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. A FEW SPOTS 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS ARE AS 
WARM AS THE LOWER 50S WHERE SOME LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE. 

SOME FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, IS NOTED ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS 
MORNING AND SOME OF THIS FOG COULD MAKE A RUN FOR SOUTHERN DEWITT 
AND LAVACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE WINDS SHOULD 
TREND TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST AND PERHAPS EVEN LIGHT WESTERLY 
DIRECTION THROUGH SUNRISE IN THIS REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL 
NOT MENTION ANY FOG IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, WARM 
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AS 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PUSH AFTERNOON 
HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD 
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT AUSTIN MABRY, WITH THE FORECAST HIGH 
TEMPERATURE (78 DEGREES) CURRENTLY WITHIN 1 DEGREE OF TYING THE 
RECORD (79 DEGREES SET IN 1980). 

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM LATE THIS 
EVENING INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS 
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AROUND 10 PM 
FROM THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE HILL COUNTRY, THEN 
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS 
ON SATURDAY. THE BIG STORY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE VERY WINDY 
CONDITIONS SET TO OCCUR ACROSS ALL AREAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BEHIND THE 
FRONT ON SATURDAY. INITIALLY, WE EXPECT THE STRONGER WINDS TO BE 
ISOLATED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 
CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH SUNRISE AND 
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARD, MIXING WILL OCCUR AND WINDS 
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE ACROSS ALL AREAS. IF THE MIXING MANAGES TO 
OCCUR A LITTLE EARLIER, WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 
GUSTS CLOSER TO 55 MPH ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR MID 
TO LATE MORNING. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60 
DEGREES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL 
TEXAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY. 

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN IN THE EVENING HOURS,
ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER EXTENDING THE NPW OR RFW
AN EXTRA HOUR TO 01Z BASED ON THE MOS GUIDANCES FOR SOME AREAS. BY 
03Z SUNDAY, THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A SHARP DROP IN WINDS;
MEANWHILE CENTRAL TX AND THE COASTAL PRAIRIES MAY SEE A STIFF WIND 
OF 15 TO 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL STILL BE 
CHURNING AT 5 TO 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, SO WE REMAINED CLOSE TO 
NBM WITH MAINLY HILL COUNTRY AREAS TO SEE THE HARD FREEZE AND MOST 
AREAS GETTING ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE. CAA CONTINUES INTO LATE SUNDAY 
MORNING BEFORE SW WINDS RETURN OVER WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON. THIS SW WIND RETURN THAT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY 
MAY END UP DECOUPLING, SO THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE PARTS OF CENTRAL TX,
ESPECIALLY VALLEY AREAS WILL SEE THE MORNING LOWS TREND COLDER FOR 
MONDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY GETTING SOME BRIEF HARD FREEZE TEMPS OVER 
THE BLACKLAND PRAIRIES EAST OF I-35. MEANWHILE THE ROCKSPRINGS AREA 
AND OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SEE 
MILDER MIN TEMPS MONDAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY. 

SEASONAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN MONDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A 
FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IMPACTS TEMPERATURES AFTER 
THE SUN GETS CLOSE TO SETTING. THE MERIDIONAL PATTERN ALOFT SHARPENS 
WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND THE CAA PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WILL LAST 
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. THIS COULD SET UP AN INTERESTING 
SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE AN ELEVATED AREA OF INSTABILITY 
COULD BRING A BRIEF MIX OF SLEET BEFORE MODIFYING TO RAIN ACROSS 
NORTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW, THE WORDING OF THE WEATHER GRIDS ARE ALL
RAIN, AND THE PERIOD OF CONCERN IS JUST OUTSIDE THE 7-DAY FORECAST 
PACKAGE. UNLESS THE STRENGTH OF THE LATE WEDNESDAY FRONT TRENDS
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER, THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL IMPACTS AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS WHAT THE 
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY EXPERIENCED EARLY TUESDAY, WHICH IS BRIEF SLEET
CHANGING TO RAIN. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE MOISTURE REMAINS 
FARTHER SOUTH, AN ONLY A BROKEN LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL ACROSS
THE COLDER LOCATIONS.

FIRE WEATHER...

FOR TODAY, AN INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOW 
HUMIDITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL 
COUNTRY WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE AROUND SUNSET 
ACROSS ALL AREAS. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY SHOULD ONLY REMAIN 
FAIR TO POOR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS DRY 
AIR REMAINS INTACT THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS ALL AREAS FROM LATE 
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS VERY 
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE DRIEST 
AIR AND SLIGHTLY "WARMER" TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S 
STILL LOOKS TO PRODUCE THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. DROUGHT 
STRESSED AND CURED FUELS IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AND THE FIRE WEATHER 
WATCH FOR THIS REGION WILL REMAIN INTACT. FARTHER EAST, DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, 
RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              78  42  51  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  42  53  31  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  43  56  31  61 /   0   0   0   0   0 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77  37  48  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  46  59  32  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  40  50  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             78  43  58  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  43  53  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  45  53  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  44  54  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           80  46  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR 
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-
KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-
TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
FOR ATASCOSA-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FRIO-KINNEY-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-UVALDE-
VAL VERDE-ZAVALA.

&&

$$

SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...PLATT
LONG-TERM...OAKS

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