022 
FXUS64 KEWX 181745 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1145 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2022

.AVIATION...18Z TAF PACKAGE

FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES (KAUS, KSAT, AND KSSF), VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT BEFORE FLIGHT CONDITIONS 
DETERIORATE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR LEVELS FROM SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY 
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT. WINDS STAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 
5 TO 10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A POSSIBLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 
SHIFT IN THE FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE 30 HOUR TAF PERIOD. 

FOR KDRT, EXPECT FOR VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH OCCASIONAL PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. WE'LL MONITOR FOR ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT TRY TO MOVE UP 
THE RIO GRANDE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS 
THESE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TREND THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIRECTIONS THEN BECOMING MORE VARIABLE
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND INCREASE FROM OUT OF THE 
NORTH-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND PASSAGE OF A DRYLINE
BOUNDARY. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2022/ 

AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
DESPITE SOME DECENT RISES IN DEW POINT TEMPS OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR,
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DRAINAGE FLOW FROM HIGHER TERRAIN HAS PREVENTED
ANY FORMATIONS OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG NEAR THE I-35 TAF SITES. THIS 
SHOULD KEEP DRY AIR WELL-MIXED OVER THE REGION FOR TODAY AND LIKELY 
PREVENT ANY EARLY RETURNS OF LOW CLOUDS FOR THIS EVENING. AFTER 
MIDNIGHT SOME LOW STRATUS OF IFR OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE AND POSSIBLY 
SOME PATCHY FOG WITH SOME VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP THE 
FORECAST FOR THESE LATE PERIODS VAGUE AND LET LATER SHIFTS PIN DOWN 
THE TIMING AND LEVEL OF IMPACT. MODERATE AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS 
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY, GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND GOOD 
MIXING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE JAN 18 2022/ 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SURFACE DEW POINTS EAST OF I-35 AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS S OF 
HWY 90 ARE INCREASING MORE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS MORNING THAN EARLIER 
TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED NEAR VCT AND AN AREA OF PATCHY 
FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER WITH CRP. 
THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO BURN OFF 
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO HELP REBOUND 
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S OVER ALMOST ALL AREAS. DEWPOINTS WILL 
PUSH BACK INTO AT LEAST THE LOW 40S FOR ALL COUNTIES BY LATE 
MORNING, BUT DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DRY OUT THE 
WESTERN COUNTIES WITH EARLY EVENING DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 
30S. THIS ALONG WITH RELATIVE LIGHTER WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH WILL 
ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY EVENING COOLING AT A HIGHER RATE THAN OVER 
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE THE COOLEST MIN TEMPS 
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE WESTERN HILL 
COUNTRY AND IN KINNEY AND UVALDE COUNTIES. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE 
INLAND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, AND THIS SHOULD BRING BROADER AREAS OF 
FOG DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AT LOW LEVELS, THE 
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG AS WELL AS A LATE 
MORNING STAY OF STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. A HIGHER 
FLOOR OF MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD ENSURE THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES 
FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT THE EXTRA MOISTURE IN THE REGION SHOULD SLOW DOWN 
THE MIDDAY RATES OF WARMING FOR HIGHS NO MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES 
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY. AN EXCEPTION MIGHT BE FOR THE 
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU WILL SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF A COLD FRONT 
ARRIVE WITH MUCH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE THAN IS EXPECTED FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS FOR LATER 
THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING 
COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE US 77 
CORRIDOR TO NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. IN ITS WAKE, BREEZY TO LOCALLY 
WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO OUR AREA. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. ISENTROPIC FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 
FAVORABLE JET REGION GENERATES PRECIPITATION OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY 
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THAT GRADUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING THURSDAY, THEN 
MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES, INCLUDING SNOW, SLEET, 
FREEZING RAIN, AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT 
IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, 
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISSUES ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROAD SURFACES. 
DUE TO CLOUDINESS, PRECIPITATION, AND COLD ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES 
STRUGGLE TO WARM AS MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH 
BREEZY WINDS MAKING FOR LOW WIND CHILLS. 

THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE FLIPPED IN THEIR FORECASTS. THE GFS 
PREVIOUSLY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH 
MONDAY, NOW THE ECMWF/CMC SHOW THOSE FEATURES WITH THE GFS DRY. HAVE 
GONE WITH THE BLENDED GUIDANCES UNTIL MODELS SHOW A CONSENSUS AND 
CONSISTENCY. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION, POSSIBLY MIXED
OVER A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, A SLOW WARMING TREND
CAN BE EXPECTED.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              55  76  33  40  28 /   0   0  -   40  20 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  76  33  40  27 /   0   0  10  50  20 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     53  77  34  41  28 /   0   0  -   50  30 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            53  75  28  37  23 /   0   0  -   40  10 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           48  81  37  45  31 /   0   0  10  50  20 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        55  76  30  40  25 /   0   0  -   30  10 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             48  79  34  43  27 /   0   0  -   60  30 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        53  76  33  40  28 /  -    0  10  50  20 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   59  77  36  43  30 /   0  10  20  50  30 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       53  76  35  40  30 /   0   0  -   50  30 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           54  79  37  44  32 /   0   0  -   60  30 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...BRADY
LONG-TERM...05
DECISION SUPPORT...PLATT

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  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  National Weather Service
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