354 FXUS64 KEWX 182032 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 232 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2022 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... THIS MORNING SAW A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR WITH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SPRINKLE ACTIVITY. SINCE THEN, CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY MIXED OUT AND SKIES ARE NOW MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WHILE MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-10/37 CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS MAY NOT GET BELOW 60 DEGREES. WINDS DIMINISH FROM THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE HUMID CONDITIONS AND THE LESSENING WINDS, EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE WEST AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AFTERNOON HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXITS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT COULD GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BEFORE PUSHING ACTIVITY TOWARD THE SOUTH. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOME MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND SPREAD EASTWARD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 50% AND ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE MOST LIKELY RESULTS WILL BE ICY SPOTS ON ELEVATED SURFACES INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS TODAY HAVE SHORTENED THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP AND IT SHOULD ALL BE OVER BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ARE LIKELY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FRIDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE CHILLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. WARMING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ONE MORE CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TO MORE OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 77 32 41 26 / 0 - - 30 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 55 77 32 41 26 / - - - 30 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 55 78 33 41 26 / - - - 30 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 54 76 28 38 22 / 0 - 0 20 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 82 37 46 30 / 0 0 10 40 20 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 56 77 29 40 24 / 0 - - 20 10 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 50 80 35 43 25 / - 0 - 40 30 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 55 77 32 41 26 / - - - 30 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 60 78 35 43 29 / 0 10 20 30 30 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 77 34 41 28 / - - - 40 30 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 55 79 37 45 30 / - 0 - 40 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...BRADY LONG-TERM...05 DECISION SUPPORT...PLATT
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