354 
FXUS64 KEWX 182032
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
232 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2022

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THIS MORNING SAW A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR WITH SOME VIRGA AND LIGHT SPRINKLE 
ACTIVITY. SINCE THEN, CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY MIXED OUT AND SKIES ARE NOW 
MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S OVER THE MAJORITY 
OF THE REGION WHILE MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE FOR 
LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-10/37 CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 
MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

TONIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MOST LOCATIONS 
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS MAY NOT 
GET BELOW 60 DEGREES. WINDS DIMINISH FROM THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE HUMID CONDITIONS AND THE LESSENING WINDS, EXPECT 
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT 
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE WEST AND 
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AFTERNOON HIGHS ON 
WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE STRONG COLD FRONT 
ARRIVES DURING THE HILL COUNTRY AND EXITS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AROUND 
MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT COULD GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A 
STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS BEFORE PUSHING ACTIVITY TOWARD 
THE SOUTH. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH 
BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY 
AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW THE 
FREEZING BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE UPPER 
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION 
POTENTIAL, WHICH WILL BE COVERED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOME MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND 
SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND SPREAD EASTWARD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN 50%
AND ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS
FROM FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE MOST LIKELY RESULTS WILL BE ICY SPOTS
ON ELEVATED SURFACES INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. TEMPERATURES 
THURSDAY WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE 
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND 
OVERNIGHT. MODELS TODAY HAVE SHORTENED THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP AND IT 
SHOULD ALL BE OVER BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ARE 
LIKELY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FRIDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE CHILLY IN THE UPPER 
40S AND LOWER 50S. WARMING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS 
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. 
ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ONE MORE CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN TO 
MORE OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW 
NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. 
TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              57  77  32  41  26 /   0  -   -   30  20 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  55  77  32  41  26 /  -   -   -   30  20 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     55  78  33  41  26 /  -   -   -   30  20 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            54  76  28  38  22 /   0  -    0  20  10 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  82  37  46  30 /   0   0  10  40  20 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        56  77  29  40  24 /   0  -   -   20  10 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             50  80  35  43  25 /  -    0  -   40  30 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        55  77  32  41  26 /  -   -   -   30  20 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  78  35  43  29 /   0  10  20  30  30 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       55  77  34  41  28 /  -   -   -   40  30 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           55  79  37  45  30 /  -    0  -   40  30 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM/AVIATION...BRADY
LONG-TERM...05
DECISION SUPPORT...PLATT

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