028 
FXUS64 KEWX 201743 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2022

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2022

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES 
AT THE SURFACE WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN 
BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS TIME AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
MOISTURE RELATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LACKING AS EVIDENT ON WATER 
VAPOR AND IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS THE LIFT MOVES EAST, A DRYLINE 
WILL ALSO MOVE EAST AND SOME INITIATION OF UPDRAFTS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, OVERALL COVERAGE COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE LACK OF 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THE 
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE COULD HELP GET PAST THESE MITIGATING 
FACTORS. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED/ROOTED 
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, LARGE CAPE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING 
OVER THE STORMS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM 
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK 
TO COVER THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. ANY 
STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENED/OUT OF THE AREA BY 10 PM 
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 

HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR THE EASTERN 
AREAS AND HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS IN THE EAST WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES 
AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 102-107 DEGREE 
RANGE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH THE 
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. 

FOR SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY APPROACH THE AREA BY THE 
LATE AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO THE 
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE A 20 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY 
POSSIBLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS IN EFFECT 
FOR TOMORROW FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. 
SATURDAY WILL BE ONE LAST DAY OF THE ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES 
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 105 ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX 
VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER AS WELL AND COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT 
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2022

FORCING BY THE FRONT AND DRYLINE WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO NIGHT. FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE AROUND 4,000 J/KG AND DCAPE AROUND 1,500 J/KG 
INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL 
SATURDAY EVENING.  

THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER OUR AREA WITH THE FRONT DRIFTING 
BACK TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. FORCING BRINGS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY LATER ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS DUE TO 
ELEVATED CAPE. MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS AS PWS RISE TO AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WITH A POSSIBILITY 
OF TRAINING OF CELLS. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY TO THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR 
AREA. FORCING BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN, RAINS END AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES 
SUBSIDENT AND DRIER IN WAKE OF ITS PASSAGE. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE 
FASTEST ENDING RAINS ON WEDNESDAY WHILE CMC IS THE SLOWEST ENDING 
RAINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH THE 
BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPING POPS INTO THURSDAY.  

AFTER A RUN OF SUMMER-LIKE NEAR RECORD OR RECORD HEAT FOR MOST OF 
MAY, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND ROUNDS OF RAIN MOST DAYS, AS WELL AS, COLD 
ADVECTION ON SUNDAY AND THURSDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2022

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING 
WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND 
WEAKEST AT KDRT CLOSEST TO THE DRYLINE. SLIM POTENTIAL FOR A LATE 
DAY SHOWER OR STORM BUT CHANCES FAVOR FOR THE SITES TO REMAIN RAIN 
FREE. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AT THE 
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO SITES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THOSE SITES WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS.
KDRT SEES CLEAR SKIES RETURN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR KAUS, ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A PROB30 GROUP FOR
VERY LATE IN THE 30 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS CONVECTION APPROACHES THE 
REGION WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR......MAY 20TH......MAY 21ST

AUSTIN BERGSTROM.....99 IN 2008....97 IN 2005
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY...101 IN 2008....99 IN 1939
SAN ANTONIO INT.....100 IN 1996....98 IN 1939
DEL RIO.............105 IN 1973...107 IN 1953

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76 100  66  79 /  10  20  60  40 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 100  66  80 /  10  20  50  40 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  98  68  83 /  10  20  50  40 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  96  62  79 /  10  30  40  30 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72 101  70  85 /  10   0  20  30 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  63  79 /  10  30  60  40 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 100  70  87 /  10  20  30  30 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75 100  66  81 /  10  20  50  40 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  98  70  84 /  20  10  50  60 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75 100  68  83 /  10  20  40  40 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           76 102  71  87 /  10  20  40  40 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...05
AVIATION...BRADY

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