016 
FXUS64 KEWX 231757
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1257 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

A TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST OVER WESTERN MEXICO WILL MOVE 
SLOWLY TO TX BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AT 00Z WED, WITH A COUPLE 
OF WEAK SHORTWAVES BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

TODAY, WE'LL ALSO SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SFC LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS 
NM. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO 
THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WE EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP 
LATER TODAY OVER THE TRANS-PECOS AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST IN AN 
ENVIRONMENT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR 
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN A BROADER 
MULTICELLULAR EVENT, AND COULD ROOT TO THE SURFACE FOR A TIME LATE 
TODAY WEST OF US-281. WHILE A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS A 
RESULT, THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING 
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WINDS MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT HAZARD IF STORMS 
ARE ABLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE CAMS. 
SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ACROSS MOST OF THE 
REGION, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) EAST OF TAYLOR TO GONZALES TO 
KENEDY DUE TO EXPECTED WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. 

A STABLE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY 
DRY MORNING ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO 
OCCUR QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME AS THE TROUGH DRAWS NEARER. 
EXPECTING MUCAPE TO REACH 2000-3000 J/KG AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A COUPLE OF CAMS ARE ABLE TO 
DEVELOP STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF US-281 IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH 
THE BEGINNINGS OF A LLJ RAMPING UP, THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE 
CONDUCIVE TO AN ISOLATED TORNADO SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO DEVELOP 
DURING THIS TIME. NAM SOUNDINGS, FOR EXAMPLE, DEPICT STP NEAR 4 AND 
HREF MEAN 0-3KM SRH IS IN THE 150-200 M2/S2 RANGE. GLOBAL GUIDANCE 
IS BULLISH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. 
AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, ONLY ABOUT HALF THE CAMS DEVELOP ANY WARM 
SECTOR CONVECTION, WITH STORMS MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNSET AS THE NEXT 
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SPC'S DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK DOES INCLUDE LLANO, 
THE AUSTIN METRO AREA, AND EAST TO LEE COUNTY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK 
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA SAVE THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU 
AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAINS. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY THE 
PRIMARY RISK PRIOR TO 00Z WED IF STORMS ARE INDEED ABLE TO DEVELOP. 

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BENEFICIAL, BUT NOT 
DROUGHT-BUSTING. MOST SPOTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PICK UP 0.5-2", WITH 
ISOLATED SPOTS PERHAPS SEEING 3-4". THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE 
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS. WPC HAS 
INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS WEST OF 
APPROXIMATELY AUSTIN TO PLEASANTON, AND A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. 
MOST AREAS CAN TAKE A LOT OF RAIN AT THIS POINT, SO IF ANY FLOODING 
CONCERNS WERE TO ARISE THEY WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF, IN THE FORM OF 
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE WARM- 
SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESULT
TO A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ABILENE AT THE 
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MOST HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE SOME SCATTERED 
ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL 
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LACK OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
COULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
BECOME ROOTED AT THE SURFACE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

AN MCS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST AND 
SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE 
ENTERING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM TUESDAY 
NIGHT. MOST OF THE QPF IN THE MODEL OUTPUT IS BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT, 
BUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS IF THE LEADING EDGE OF POTENTIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND 
STORMS REMAINS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF SOME SEVERE STORMS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE CWA BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON 
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S OR LOWER 70S 
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BEHIND THIS 
SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE INT HE 
50S AND 60S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL 
BE IN THE 80S WITH A WARM UP EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE RIO GRANDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

AN MCS DOMINATED ENVIRONMENT WILL MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE 18Z
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE CONSENSUS OF FINER RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP WITH
THE PRIMARY MCS ACTIVITY TO NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE SHARP SHORTWAVE
KINK THAT SHOULD KEEP THE MOST ACTIVE STORM HOURS AT DRT TO BE IN THE
23Z TO 03Z WINDOW, AND THE I-35 TERMINALS PEAKING IN THE 05Z TO 10Z
TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS BREAK THE MCS ACTIVITY
INTO SEPARATE FRAGMENTS, WITH VARYING ONSET TIMES. THUS WILL STICK
WITH THE CONSENSUS THAT HAS A PRETTY GOOD MATCH WITH WHAT THE GFS HAS
DEPICTED FOR SEVERAL RUNS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS SHOULD PRECEDE THE STORM
ARRIVAL, AND SOME NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT CLOUDS COULD DROP TO IFR
WITH AN EVEN LOWER CATEGORY POSSIBLE ON THE VSBYS NEAR THE RAIN
SHAFTS. LATE PERIODS WERE GLOSSED OVER FOR AFTER 12Z TUESDAY, BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME
CONVECTION IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              84  69  81  66 /  20  70  70  80 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  86  69  81  66 /  20  70  80  80 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     85  68  84  67 /  20  70  60  80 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  68  82  63 /  20  80  60  90 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           82  68  91  68 /  60  70  20  40 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        83  68  81  64 /  20  70  70  90 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  68  86  67 /  40  80  40  60 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  68  82  66 /  20  70  70  80 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  71  84  68 /  10  70  80  80 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  68  82  67 /  30  70  50  80 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  70  87  70 /  30  70  50  70 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM...OAKS
LONG-TERM...76
AVIATION...OAKS

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