598 
FXUS64 KEWX 131715
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1215 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2022

...NEW AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2022

DESPITE THE RECORD HEAT, WE ARE STILL MANAGING TO AT LEAST GET SOME 
CLOUDS IN THE MORNINGS, RIGHT? TRYING TO SEE THE POSITIVES HERE. 
LATEST GOES-E NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS CHANNEL SHOWS A LAYER OF 
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND ADVECTING NORTH AND 
WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME MORNING LOW 
CLOUDS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/I-37 CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 
9-10AM BEFORE SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE MIXES OUT DUE TO RAPID 
SURFACE HEATING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN ON 
MONDAY, BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP IT JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY 
LEVELS, AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 103 FOR MOST, 
AND HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK AS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO 
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME ON TUESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY 
"COOL OFF" A BIT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND SETTLES OVER 
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE GULF 
MOISTURE TO WORK INLAND, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER 
ON TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUESDAY, 
THE HUMIDITY MAY GET A SLIGHT BUMP, BUT HEAT INDICES SHOULDN'T BE 
TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS RAMP UP 
TO 15-20 MPH, GUSTING TO 25+ AT TIMES. IF YOU'VE NOTICED THE HAZY 
SKIES, IT'S DUE TO THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WORKING ITS WAY ALL THE 
WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN CONUS. WE'LL LIKELY KEEP 
THESE HAZY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK, BUT IT SHOULDN'T IMPACT 
SURFACE VISIBILITIES TOO MUCH. WE MAY ACTUALLY GET SOME AFTERNOON 
CUMULUS AS 700 MB MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF AN INVERTED 
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DON'T 
GET YOUR HOPES UP THOUGH, RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF 
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2022

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE IN A STATE OF 
TRANSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. 
PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIE 
PROVINCES WEDNESDAY MORNING, A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROPAGATE 
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND REACH THE NORTHEAST CONUS/CANADIAN 
MARITIME PROVINCES BY FRIDAY EVENING. A TRAILING LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS 
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE VACATING FEATURE, ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LOWER FORTY-EIGHT BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT 
WEEKEND. LOCALLY, THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMING SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AFTER THE 
MODEST EARLY WEEK COOL DOWN DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE COOLEST 
DAY SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY -- PRIOR TO THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC CHANGES 
TAKING PLACE -- WHEN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 
WINTER GARDEN WILL REMAIN BELOW THE CENTURY MARK. WIDESPREAD UPPER 
90S AND LOW 100S WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT THEREAFTER.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO APPEAR OVERALL LOW THROUGH NEXT 
WEEKEND, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME MINOR UPDATES IN THE POP AND 
WEATHER GRIDS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE NATION FROM 
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, A STALLING AND WEAK FRONTAL ZONE COULD IMPINGE 
UPON THE WESTERN GULF STATES BY THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY PORTION OF THE 
MEDIUM RANGE. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS PAINT 
SOME LOW (10-20%) PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY, 
CURRENTLY FOCUSED TO THE EAST OF THE I-35 AND I-37 CORRIDORS. HAVE 
THUS INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONS OF 
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 
AFTERNOONS. IF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WERE TO DEVELOP ON EITHER 
DAY ACROSS THE REGION, ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE SLIM, TOTALING TO NO 
MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG 
TERM FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS DRY AS UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING AND AN OVERALL SUBSIDING COLUMN PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2022

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL AREA AIRPORTS AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP AND BECOME
GUSTY FOR THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS AND LAST UNTIL LATE
MORNING TUESDAY. DRT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022

RECORD HIGHS FOR JUNE 13TH 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM.......102/2006 
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY......101/2011 
SAN ANTONIO............101/2006 
DEL RIO................105/1960

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  99  78  97 /   0   0   0   0 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  98  77  97 /   0   0   0   0 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  98  77  98 /   0   0   0   0 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  98  75  96 /   0   0   0   0 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 102  78 100 /   0   0   0   0 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77  98  77  97 /   0   0   0   0 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76  99  76  99 /   0   0   0   0 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        76  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   78  99  78  98 /   0   0   0   0 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  99  77  98 /   0   0   0  10 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM...MORRIS
LONG-TERM...QUIGLEY
AVIATION...05