408 
FXUS64 KEWX 231929
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
229 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL 
TEXAS WITH HIGHS ALREADY REACHING THE CENTURY MARK BY 2PM IN SOME 
SPOTS. WHERE YESTERDAY HAD A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD, TODAY 
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING 
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY WHERE CUMULUS 
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GROW. WHILE MOISTURE IS DECREASING IN PARTS OF 
THE AREA - WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING FROM THE MID TO LOW 60S THIS 
MORNING TO LOW 60S AND UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS STILL A 
LOW CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THOSE CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HILL 
COUNTRY COULD POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS 
INCLUDING THE TEXAS TECH WRF, ARW, AND HRRR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 
THIS. CHANCES ARE LOW THOUGH, AND IF A SHOWER DOES OCCUR AND SOMEONE 
GETS A QUICK FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN THEY 
WILL BE VERY LUCKY. MOST AREAS WILL BE HOT AND SUNNY FOR THE REST OF 
THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO 
BE CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER ALONG THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. 

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AFTER ANOTHER WARM NIGHT. CONTINUED 
DRYING SHOULD HELP ZERO OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY BUT ALSO LEAD TO 
LESS CLOUD COVER. LESS CLOUDS UNDER A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANS 
ONLY ONE THING - INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL APPROACH HEAT 
ADVISORY CRITERIA BRIEFLY IN SOME SPOTS, BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF 
ON ISSUING THE PRODUCT AND LET THE EVENING/MID SHIFTS REASSESS LATER 
MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. EVEN WITHOUT THE HEAT ADVISORY IT WILL 
STILL BE HOT, SO THOSE OUT AND ABOUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MINDFUL 
AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, WEAR LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, TAKE BREAKS 
IN THE SHADE, AND GET YOUR ERRANDS DONE IN THE MORNING DURING THE 
COOLER PARTS OF THE DAY. WHILE THE SHORT TERM GENERALLY LOOKS HOT 
AND DRY, THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF IN THE LONG TERM!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OVER TEXAS SATURDAY KEEPING THE
WEATHER DRY WEATHER OVER OUR CWA FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER FOR
THE WEEKEND, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HUMIDITY WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA. MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA AND STALLING OVER
SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING LOW CHANCES 
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS ARE BECOMING
A BIT MORE CONSISTENT ON PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. WE'VE INCREASED POPS A BIT THERE FOR
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SOME LESS HOT AIR AND HIGHS ON 
TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DEPRESSED IN THE
NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AROUND THE NOON
HOUR TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATE VFR CUMULUS HAS BEGUN TO FORM
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. VFR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH ONLY THE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ONE TO TWO STRAY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND AUS BUT CHANCES ARE SO LOW, AND
COVERAGE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED SO WILL NOT MENTION PRECIPITATION IN
THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY, WITH A
BIT MORE DUE SOUTH COMPONENT BY FRIDAY MORNING.  

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2022

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR:
                     JUNE 23          JUNE 24           JUNE 25

AUSTIN MABRY         104(2017)        105(2009)         106(2009)
AUSTIN BERGSTROM     103(1953)        104(2009)         107(2009)
SAN ANTONIO          102(1990)        102(2009)         103(2012)
DEL RIO              106(2018)        106(2018)         106(1994)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76 102  74 101 /   0   0   0   0 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73 102  73 100 /   0   0   0   0 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73 103  72 102 /   0   0   0   0 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75 101  74 100 /   0   0   0   0 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 103  77 102 /   0   0   0   0 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76 103  74 101 /   0   0   0   0 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74 103  72 102 /   0   0   0   0 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72 103  72 101 /   0   0   0   0 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75 103  74 102 /   0   0   0   0 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74 104  74 103 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM...TREADWAY
LONG-TERM...05
AVIATION...TREADWAY

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