038 
FXUS64 KEWX 111935
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2022

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2022

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND 
THE HILL COUNTRY AS OF 2 PM. AREA RADARS ARE PICKING UP ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST BANDERA COUNTY TO NORTHWEST 
WILLIAMSON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY COMES AS A RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE 
ZONE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IN ADDITION TO LOCAL EFFECTS. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THEY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. STRONGER STORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND WIND 
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

NOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITY TALK IS OUT OF THE WAY, LET US 
TALK ABOUT THE HEAT. AS OF 2 PM, TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM 102 
TO 106 ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR, 97 TO 102 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY 
AND 100 TO 104 ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS 
IN EFFECT FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE COASTAL PLAINS AREAS WITH A 
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A GOOD 
CHANCE FOR DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT ALL CLIMATE SITES.

THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREFORE THE 
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 
TUESDAY EVENING.

SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LESS COVERAGE, EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO INTERACTION OF 
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, LOCAL EFFECTS AND LATER IN THE 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE SEA BREEZE. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG 
AND PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. 

MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AREA EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 
LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO 82 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2022

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH -- 
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXCESSIVE HEAT CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE 
AREA -- BEGINS TO PIVOT WESTWARD AND RECENTERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS 
REGION. WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS TRANSITION THROUGH 
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD 100-105 DEGREE WARMTH ON 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FALLING BACK TO UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S BY 
FRIDAY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE UPCOMING 
WEEKEND, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S BEING FOUND 
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HILL COUNTRY. WHILE STILL WELL ABOVE 
NORMAL, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME MINOR RELIEF AFTER AN OPPRESSIVE 
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. 

APART FROM THE WARMTH, SMALL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY-
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED IN THE WEDNESDAY, 
THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WEATHER GRIDS IN THIS FORECAST 
PACKAGE. PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, THE SEA BREEZE, AND A WEAK SURFACE 
FRONTAL ZONE ARE AT THE HEART OF THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH 
THE LAST OF THESE THREE FEATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ENTER THE 
REGION DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. AM 
INCLINED TO THINK THAT THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONNECTED 
TO THIS BOUNDARY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, 
CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS 
BURNET, LLANO, AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 
FRONT APPROACHES SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE IN 
ADDITION TO ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE COASTAL PLAINS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. WELL INTO THE CWA BY 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ALONGSIDE THE SEA 
BREEZE TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS, HILL COUNTRY, AND I-35 CORRIDOR. 
ISOLATED SEA BREEZE STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR 
SOUTHEAST ONCE MORE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OF SIMILAR CHARACTER TO THE 
ACTIVITY OBSERVED OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND, MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE 
THE WEEK COME AND GO WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL, THOUGH AREAS 
FINDING THEMSELVES UNDER A STORM COULD PICK UP A QUICK TENTH TO 
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN AT SOME POINT IN THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY 
TIMEFRAME. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD TURNS DRY 
FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2022

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT ANY AREA AIRPORTS, HOWEVER, IF ANY STORMS
DEVELOP AND CROSSES THE AIRPORTS, THEN A HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND WIND 
GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND LIGHTNING CLOUD TO GROUND ARE POSSIBLE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
PERIOD WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND ANY STORM THAT 
DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 11TH-12TH, MONTH OF JULY:

        11TH        12TH        JULY              
SAT...104/1917...103/1998*...107 ON 7/13/2020 
ATT...108/1917...107/1954....110 ON 7/23/2018 AND NOW 7/10/2022
AUS...104/1954...106/1954....109 ON 7/23/2018  
DRT...109/2020...109/2020....112 ON 7/13/2020
* ALSO PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY             109  78 103  79 /  20  10  10   0 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 107  77 103  77 /  20  10  10  10 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT    108  77 102  76 /  20  10  10  20 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT           107  78 102  78 /  20  10  10   0 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          108  83 106  81 /  10  10  20  10 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT       107  78 104  79 /  20  10  10   0 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT            108  78 105  77 /  20  10  10  20 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT       106  77 104  77 /  20  10  10  20 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL  105  78 104  77 /  20  10  10   0 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT      107  79 103  78 /  20  10  10  20 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT          108  79 104  78 /  20  10  10  20 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ATASCOSA-BASTROP-
BEXAR-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-FAYETTE-FRIO-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-
KARNES-LAVACA-LEE-MEDINA-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-WILSON.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-
BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-
FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-
LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-UVALDE-VAL VERDE-
WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA.

&&

$$

SHORT-TERM...17
LONG-TERM...QUIGLEY
AVIATION...17