961 
FXUS64 KEWX 011912
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
212 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES A MID-TO-
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO, WHICH IS 
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE 
BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THIS FEATURE IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS, ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS 
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES 
FURTHER INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE "COOLEST" UNTIL 
LATER THIS WEEK, RANGING FROM THE MID 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 100 ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATOCU MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS TOMORROW, BUT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS 
THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BE SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING. 
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AND MID-WEEK, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL 
STRENGTHEN OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW 
DEGREES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE TO NON-
EXISTENT. WHILE TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 1-
3 DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY, WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO HOLD OFF ON 
ANY HEAT HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM. TUESDAY ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 
TAD ON THE BREEZY SIDE, AND IN COMBINATION WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE 
HUMIDITIES PRIMARILY IN THE 25-35% RANGE AND RECEPTIVE FUELS, 
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SAHARAN DUST 
WILL ARRIVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THURSDAY BEFORE 
THINNING OUT INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 
THE WEEK OCCURRING. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AN INVERTED MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT TO AROUND AND EXCEEDING 2" THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY 
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO BACK OFF SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THIS 
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

FOR THE MOST PART, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND, BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS MAY RE-DEVELOP TUESDAY 
MORNING, BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER 
SO WE HAVE ONLY MENTIONED FEW IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2022

RECORD HIGHS (* = "AND PREVIOUS YEARS")

               SAT        AUS        ATT        DRT

08/02(TUE)   103/2011   106/2011   107/2011   106/2012
08/03(WED)   103/1998*  105/2011*  107/1923   106/1996
08/04(THU)   103/2011*  105/2011   107/2011   104/2020*
08/05(FRI)   104/2013*  105/1951   106/2011   105/1951

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77 101  77 105 /   0  10   0   0 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76 101  75 103 /   0  10   0   0 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76 101  76 103 /   0  10   0   0 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            77 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79 103  79 104 /   0   0   0   0 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        77 102  77 103 /   0   0   0   0 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             76 103  75 104 /   0   0   0   0 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75 102  75 103 /   0  10   0   0 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 102  75 103 /   0  10   0   0 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77 101  77 103 /   0   0   0   0 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           77 102  76 104 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM...GALE
LONG-TERM...76
AVIATION...GALE

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