982 
FXUS64 KEWX 241600 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1100 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2022

...NEW UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2022

CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE MOSAIC ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SHOWS
POCKETS OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY AROUND MIDDAY OR DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND 
INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWER 
ACTIVITY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WITH BETTER FOCUSED LIFTING 
ALONG THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, SOME OF THE
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN FRONT AND STORM POTENTIAL FOR
LATER THIS EVENING, WHERE A STRONG CELL OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CONCERN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE 
WEATHER WILL BE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE MAIN
FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. LATEST HI-RES MODELS DO
SHOW THAT THE LINE COULD DEVELOP FROM THE HILL COUNTRY TO AROUND THE
I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE BEING A FULLY ESTABLISHED LINE AS IN ADVANCES
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS REMAINS
THE GREATEST THREAT BUT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES IN
ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE OPPORTUNITY OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. HAIL UP TO OR AROUND ONE INCH IN DIAMETER COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. 

CONCERNS ARE INCREASING FOR A POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL WIND EVENT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND SQUALL LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY. HI-RES AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE. A SHORT-LIVED WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR THIS AREA IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALONG
WITH THE OUTPUT FROM THE SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST FROM THE DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS IN TACT BEYOND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2022

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS AND A DEEP TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. AT THE 
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM A LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE TO 
SOUTHERN NM. ACROSS OUR CWA STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUED 
BRINGING WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN 
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TWO PRECIPITATION EPISODES. DURING THE DAY 
TODAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING THE FIRST 
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN. THIS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF 
OUR CWA AND PRODUCE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
POSSIBLE. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH 
INTO THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE BRINGING STRONGER FORCING. 
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE HILL COUNTRY, I-35 CORRIDOR, AND COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE 
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD. SPC HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT 
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MOST 
LIKELY THREAT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THE PROGRESSIVE 
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS MODERATE. OUR 
COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER 
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION 
SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND DRY WEATHER 
WILL RETURN. BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 
WINDS WILL BRING COOLER, DRIER AIR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL 
DROP CONSIDERABLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH THE BREEZY 
WINDS COULD PRODUCE ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER 
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2022

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON 
WEDNESDAY AS LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF 
EASTERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. WITH THIS SURFACE PATTERN, WE WILL 
SEE A QUICK RETURN OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL 
COUNTRY, SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 
THE UPPER 40S IN AREAS WHERE WINDS GO CALM, TO NEAR 60 WHERE WINDS 
REMAIN ELEVATED. ON THURSDAY, SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LOW 
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER LOW AND WHILE PREVIOUS RUNS OF 
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAD SHOWN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING 
OF THIS FRONT, THE 00Z SUITE IS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT. BY SUNRISE 
FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND 
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND SOME UPPER LIFT 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY 
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF 
THIS FRONT WILL BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 
CORRIDOR, SO WE WILL REFLECT THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THESE 
AREAS. THE FRONT WILL MAKE RAPID EASTWARD PROGRESS ON FRIDAY, WITH 
RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY SHUTTING DOWN AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AROUND 850MB ARE LIKELY TO BE IN 
THE 25-40KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS 
EXPECTED FROM THE HILL COUNTRY WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. 
WHILE IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY, WE WILL 
NEED TO MONITOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
FOR WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL (SUSTAINED 26-39 MPH). A FAIRLY STOUT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR 
SOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WE WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 70S
ON SATURDAY. THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT 
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THIS LOW WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM THE 
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. SLOWER 
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WOULD LEAD TO MORE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON 
SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS, WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW 
WEAKENS QUICKLY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE 
SURFACE WIND FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES WITH 
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2022

SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND THEY
ARE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AS THEY MORE TOWARD THE EAST. CEILINGS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE INTO AUSTIN
AND SAN ANTONIO AROUND 15Z FOR A FEW HOURS. THEN THERE WILL BE A
BREAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR DURING THIS
TIME. THIS EVENING ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. THE BEST TIMING RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TURNING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING.

DRT WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CEILING THIS
MORNING WILL RISE TO VFR BY AROUND NOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THERE AROUND 22Z BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP 30 KTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              85  55  77  49 /  60  60   0   0 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  54  76  46 /  60  60   0   0 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  55  78  49 /  50  50   0   0 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  49  75  48 /  50  40   0   0 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  54  77  52 /  10  10   0   0 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        82  52  75  47 /  50  50   0   0 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  52  80  48 /  30  20   0   0 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        85  56  77  47 /  50  60   0   0 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  57  75  46 /  50  70   0   0 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       86  55  79  51 /  50  40   0   0 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  58  80  52 /  50  40   0   0 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT-TERM...BRADY
LONG-TERM...PLATT
AVIATION...05