168 
FGUS73 KPAH 091549
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-231200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
946 AM CST THU MAR 09 2023

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NWS PADUCAH SERVICE AREA. IT COVERS THE TIME
PERIOD FOR MID-MARCH THROUGH MID-JUNE. IT INCLUDES THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVERS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES FOR
SOUTHWEST INDIANA, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE OR NORMAL FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND WEST KENTUCKY. THERE
IS, HOWEVER, AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR FLOODING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DUE TO THE NUMEROUS SNOW EVENTS IN THE UPPER PART OF THE BASIN
WITH INCREASED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS. AND THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAIN EVENTS.

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED INCREASED STREAMFLOW IN MANY RIVERS
IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. FLOODING IN
THIS REGION OCCURS MAINLY DUE TO CONDITIONS OF GROUND MOISTURE,
RIVER FLOWS, AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. ICE JAMS ARE RARELY A
FACTOR IN FLOODING FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AS WELL AS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. TWO TO FIVE
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE LAST WEEK AND THIS IS UP TO 300 PERCENT
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION.

SMALLER RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ARE RUNNING 100 TO 150 PERCENT
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THE OHIO RIVER IS RUNNING
150 TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FLOWS HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED AND ARE ABOVE NORMAL.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY AND ARE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THERE IS NO FROST DEPTH IN OUR REGION.

NUMEROUS WINTER STORM SYSTEMS HAVE AFFECTED THE UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. SNOW WATER
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES EXIST. MINIMAL MELT IS EXPECTED IN THE
COMING WEEKS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS, FLOOD RISK IS NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
FLOODING THROUGH THE SPRING FOR MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF SPRING STORM SYSTEMS. FLOODING ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED BY SNOW MELT FROM THE UPPER
PARTS OF THE BASIN DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

...PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  03/14/2023 - 06/12/2023

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:GREEN RIVER
CALHOUN             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  24   37   14   23   <5    6
PARADISE           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  68   69   20   26   <5   <5
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  72   65   38   38   19   21
:OHIO RIVER
EVANSVILLE          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  19   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
GOLCONDA            40.0   49.0   55.0 :  40   45   <5    7   <5   <5
HENDERSON           36.0   43.0   48.0 :  75   52   <5   <5   <5   <5
MOUNT VERNON        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  65   67   <5    7   <5   <5
NEWBURGH DAM        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  76   76   <5   <5   <5   <5
OWENSBORO           40.0   44.0   49.0 :  29   32   <5    6   <5   <5
SHAWNEETOWN         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  75   81   27   37   <5   <5
J.T. MYERS DAM      37.0   49.0   60.0 :  72   74   <5    8   <5   <5
:PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON           18.0   20.0   23.0 :  61   63   45   50   19   18
:SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  45   41   37   33   25   20
:WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY         15.0   20.0   23.0 : >95   80   33   26   <5   <5
:BLACK RIVER
POPLAR BLUFF        16.0   19.0   21.0 :  40   33   18   17    9   10
:CURRENT RIVER
DONIPHAN            13.0   18.0   22.0 :  23   24    6   14   <5    9
VAN BUREN           20.0   23.0   27.0 :   6   14   <5    9   <5    7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CAPE GIRARDEAU      32.0   37.0   42.0 :  92   81   68   63   44   40
NEW MADRID          34.0   40.0   44.0 :  56   64   15   27    5   <5
THEBES              33.0   37.0   42.0 :  84   75   63   57   33   32
:OHIO RIVER
CAIRO               40.0   47.0   53.0 : >95   89   41   63   19   37
OLMSTED LOCK AND    36.0   42.0   47.0 : >95   86   53   63   28   42
PADUCAH             39.0   43.0   52.0 :  59   66   37   52    7    8
SMITHLAND DAM       40.0   48.0   50.0 :  44   57    9    9    8    8
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER
FISK                20.0   22.0   26.0 :  26   25   21   24   11   21
PATTERSON           16.0   25.0   32.0 :  43   54   15   19   <5    9
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD           20.0   27.0   34.0 :  53   56   13   14   <5   <5
MURPHYSBORO         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  73   69   43   47   18   16

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 03/14/2023 - 06/12/2023
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:GREEN RIVER
CALHOUN              15.3   15.9   17.0   18.4   22.8   27.1   30.5
PARADISE            374.6  376.3  379.3  381.9  384.8  388.7  392.6
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI                25.9   25.9   26.6   30.0   34.0   36.4   37.2
:OHIO RIVER
EVANSVILLE           27.7   32.3   35.2   38.4   41.3   43.0   43.6
GOLCONDA             34.7   34.9   36.1   38.8   41.8   46.2   47.3
HENDERSON            23.5   27.6   30.5   33.7   36.7   38.5   39.1
MOUNT VERNON         27.8   31.0   33.6   37.2   40.2   42.6   43.4
NEWBURGH DAM         31.5   35.9   38.1   42.1   43.8   45.1   45.7
OWENSBORO            28.9   32.2   34.0   37.7   40.4   42.4   43.3
SHAWNEETOWN          28.8   30.4   33.0   38.2   43.4   47.1   48.1
J.T. MYERS DAM       31.7   33.8   36.4   40.6   44.1   47.2   48.3
:PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON            13.6   13.8   16.1   19.5   22.0   24.5   25.5
:SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY            8.9    9.2   10.8   13.6   20.0   22.0   25.1
:WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY          18.1   18.1   18.2   18.6   20.6   21.7   22.5
:BLACK RIVER
POPLAR BLUFF         13.2   13.2   13.2   14.8   17.8   20.6   22.5
:CURRENT RIVER
DONIPHAN              4.6    4.6    4.6    6.2   12.6   16.2   18.7
VAN BUREN             6.2    6.2    6.2    7.9   13.8   17.8   20.4
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CAPE GIRARDEAU       30.9   32.5   35.4   41.1   45.1   48.8   50.6
NEW MADRID           32.0   32.0   32.2   34.5   38.0   41.1   44.3
THEBES               30.0   31.8   34.7   39.6   43.2   46.8   48.1
:OHIO RIVER
CAIRO                41.6   41.6   42.1   44.7   50.9   56.0   59.1
OLMSTED LOCK AND     39.0   39.0   39.1   42.4   47.5   51.1   56.0
PADUCAH              36.6   36.6   36.6   40.3   45.3   48.6   55.3
SMITHLAND DAM        35.4   35.4   35.5   38.9   43.7   47.3   53.5
:ST. FRANCIS RIVER
FISK                 13.9   13.9   13.9   14.3   20.2   26.2   27.3
PATTERSON             8.2    8.2    8.2   14.5   19.9   27.9   30.7
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD            16.3   16.4   18.1   20.7   22.9   27.5   32.4
MURPHYSBORO          19.4   19.8   21.1   25.4   32.1   42.0   43.5

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 03/14/2023 - 06/12/2023
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:GREEN RIVER
CALHOUN              11.7   11.5   10.8   10.4   10.2   10.1   10.1
PARADISE            366.5  366.2  365.0  364.6  364.4  364.3  364.2
:LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI                 7.9    6.4    4.4    3.5    3.0    2.8    2.8
:OHIO RIVER
EVANSVILLE           16.4   16.3   15.8   14.7   14.4   14.1   14.0
GOLCONDA             29.8   29.8   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6
HENDERSON            14.2   14.2   13.8   13.0   12.7   12.6   12.5
MOUNT VERNON         23.9   23.9   23.8   23.6   23.5   23.4   23.4
NEWBURGH DAM         17.3   17.2   16.5   15.1   14.5   14.2   14.0
OWENSBORO            19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0
SHAWNEETOWN          18.6   18.0   17.3   16.4   16.1   16.0   15.9
J.T. MYERS DAM       19.5   18.7   17.1   15.4   14.8   14.2   14.1
:PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON             7.1    5.8    4.1    3.2    2.9    2.7    2.6
:SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY            5.4    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.1    5.1    5.1
:WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY           6.0    5.1    4.0    3.2    2.6    2.2    2.0
:BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD            10.7   10.5    9.0    7.8    6.5    5.8    5.6
MURPHYSBORO          13.6   11.7   10.0    8.8    7.1    4.8    4.3

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

...WEATHER OUTLOOKS...

A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND COLDER WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT NO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 16 THROUGH 22 CALLS FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DURING THIS TIME,
NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 50 DEGREES AND RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.2 INCHES.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH IS
BETWEEN 4 AND 4 1/2 INCHES. THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/PAH FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.

UNLESS NEEDED, THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR 2023.

$$