719 
FXUS66 KSGX 160957
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
257 AM PDT THU MAR 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM DRIZZLE THIS MORNING, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND, BUT WITH HIGH 
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE 
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO 
EARLY MONDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE SOUNDING FROM MIRAMAR YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A DEEP MOIST
LAYER IN THE LOWEST 6000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS FROM THIS MOIST LAYER EXTENDING
WELL INLAND AND ONTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THERE HAVE BEEN
AREAS OF DRIZZLE SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING IN PORTIONS OF THE COAST
AND VALLEYS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS, MOSTLY LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH INCH. 

ASIDE FROM THE DRIZZLE, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, EVEN WITH THE WARMING SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MIGHT RETURN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT TIMES FROM LATE MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOST CONSISTENTLY WET PERIOD 
ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SPREAD ON THE FRONT END WITH HOW MUCH 
PRECIPITATION MIGHT ARRIVE ON MONDAY AND ON THE BACK END IN HOW 
MUCH PRECIPITATION MIGHT CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND EARLY 
THURSDAY. NBM SNOW LEVELS START OUT FAIRLY HIGH, AROUND 7000 FEET,
FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET ON TUESDAY, THAN FALL TO AROUND 4500 
FEET FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 
BY WEDNESDAY 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 
160840Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 1500-2500 FT 
MSL AND LAYERS TO 6500 FT MSL AND PATCHY DZ/-RA CONTINUING THIS 
MORNING. LOCAL CIGS DOWN TO 800-1000 FT MSL WITH 2-4 SM VIS IN 
DZ/RA/BR. PRECIP/VIS RESTRICTIONS ENDING BY ABOUT 16Z. CLOUDS 
BECOMING SCT-BKN WITH BASES RISING TO 2500-3500 FT MSL BY 18Z. LOW 
CLOUDS REDEVELOPING AFTER 17/02Z WITH BASES NEAR 2000 FT MSL AND 
TOPS TO 3000 FT MSL. 

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES OBSCURED IN 
CLOUDS/PATCHY DZ THIS MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. 
LOWER COASTAL SLOPES BECOMING OBSCURED AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO 
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 20,000 FT MSL AND 
UNRESTRICTED VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AROUND 2 NM AT 
TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED 
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN... 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER 
     AND OUT TO 30 NM-WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN 
     BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE 
     ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...SS